The School of Odds

Boca Juniors v Estudiantes

2026-08-05 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 43.73%2.29fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.33%43.73%43.41%44.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.082.2053%49%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 24.15%4.14fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.853%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%24.15%24.56%25.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.634.0029%27%28%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -5.25%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.58%32.12%32.03%32.44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.802.9538%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.16%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.03%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:50
Marathon Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.17%EV -5.53%E -2.56%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -8.72%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -6.85%E -2.36%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 21:45
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 15:59
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.24%E -2.17%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -5.25%E -1.78%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 16:09
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.07%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -10.07%E -3.60%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-20 15:59
Codere (IT)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.45%EV -9.03%E -4.34%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -3.41%E -0.853%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -8.46%E -2.97%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-20 16:00
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -10.35%E -5.05%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -17.90%E -5.26%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -13.28%E -4.92%K -7.81%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-20 16:00
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 44.30%EV -14.28%E -7.29%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.12%EV -13.07%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -11.67%E -4.24%K -6.67%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-20 15:59
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.63%EV -16.91%E -8.90%K -18.78%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.36%EV -12.35%E -3.40%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.00%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%17.9%2026-07-20 15:59
Unibet (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.55%EV -16.91%E -8.90%K -18.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.51%EV -13.07%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.94%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-20 16:00
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.10%EV -16.91%E -8.90%K -18.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.29%EV -16.69%E -4.84%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.62%EV -14.88%E -5.62%K -9.02%G +0.000%19.4%2026-07-20 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:05