Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Boca Juniors v Estudiantes

Início: 2026-08-05 22:00 UTC

Final: Boca Juniors 1–0 Estudiantes

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Previsão 51.44%1.94odd justa
EV -2.27%
Vantagem -1.20%
Kelly -2.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.62%51.32%51.48%54.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.691.811.821.9059.17%55.13%54.95%52.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Estudiantes (Visitante)

Previsão 19.42%5.15odd justa
EV +5.46%
Vantagem +1.01%
Kelly +1.23%
Crescimento +0.067%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.65%19.54%19.44%21.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.254.744.755.4323.53%21.08%21.05%18.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.14%3.43odd justa
EV -0.917%
Vantagem -0.270%
Kelly -0.382%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.19%29.15%29.08%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.183.203.4033.33%31.47%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Boca Juniors (Local): 51.44%; Estudiantes (Visitante): 19.42%; Empate: 29.14%. Para Estudiantes (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.15. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.43, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.46%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -8.96%E -5.06%K -11.63%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.65%EV +5.46%E +1.01%K +1.23%G +0.067%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.19%EV -0.917%E -0.270%K -0.382%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 21:55
BetAnything🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.96%EV -1.14%E -0.225%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.89%EV -2.67%E -0.798%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 21:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.06%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.84%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 21:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -6.39%E -3.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.29%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-05 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.29%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 21:25
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.53%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -2.89%E -0.578%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 21:40
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.40%EV -3.30%E -1.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.40%EV -3.28%E -0.659%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.19%EV -3.54%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-05 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.23%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -3.86%E -0.780%K -0.978%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 21:40
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.23%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -3.86%E -0.780%K -0.978%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-05 21:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -2.79%E -1.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 21:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -2.79%E -1.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 21:10
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -6.39%E -3.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 21:39
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.05%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -5.29%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-05 21:45
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -8.96%E -5.06%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -4.83%E -0.986%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -3.83%E -1.16%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 21:44
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -6.78%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.29%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 21:45
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.45%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.78%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -6.78%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 21:24
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.92%EV -2.27%E -1.20%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.11%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.05%EV -2.79%E -1.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.03%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 21:55
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.62%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.85%EV -13.07%E -7.74%K -18.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.80%EV -7.75%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-05 21:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.81%EV -11.53%E -6.70%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.16%EV -9.69%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.03%EV -10.53%E -3.43%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-05 21:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -9.47%E -5.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-05 21:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.94%EV -6.39%E -3.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-05 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.94%EV -6.39%E -3.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-05 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -9.99%E -5.71%K -13.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -10.66%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 21:45
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -5.29%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 21:44
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-05 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.57%EV -10.50%E -6.03%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.94%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-05 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -9.99%E -5.71%K -13.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-05 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -9.99%E -5.71%K -13.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-05 21:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.14%EV -11.53%E -6.70%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -12.60%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-05 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.86%EV -3.81%E -2.04%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -14.54%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.95%EV -6.16%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-05 21:50
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%EV -5.36%E -2.91%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -14.54%E -3.31%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 21:30
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -15.90%E -3.67%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.75%E -2.11%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-05 21:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.62%EV -6.39%E -3.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.25%EV -17.46%E -4.11%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.66%E -3.12%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-05 21:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.86%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-05 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.86%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-05 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.86%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-05 21:55
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.64%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.67%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-05 21:55
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-08-05 21:50