La escuela de los momios

Barracas Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata

2026-07-29 17:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Barracas Central (Local)

Predicción 40.73%2.46momio equitativo
EV -3.06%
Ventaja -1.29%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.77%40.68%40.81%42.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.252.252.3848.78%44.42%44.44%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visitante)

Predicción 26.08%3.83momio equitativo
EV -3.49%
Ventaja -0.944%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.61%26.15%26.06%27.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.153.513.553.7031.75%28.48%28.17%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 33.19%3.01momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.371%
Kelly -0.558%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.98%33.16%33.13%34.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.812.802.9838.46%35.58%35.71%33.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%EV -3.06%E -1.29%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -3.49%E -0.944%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -7.74%E -2.79%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 06:55
1xBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.43%EV -4.28%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.89%EV -4.28%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.69%EV -6.41%E -2.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 06:55
LowVig.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 39.77%EV -4.28%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -4.80%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 06:49
BetOnline.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 39.77%EV -4.28%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -4.80%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 06:49
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.50%E -2.37%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -1.11%E -0.371%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 07:20
Betsson2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.50%E -2.37%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -1.11%E -0.371%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 07:19
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.39%EV -5.91%E -2.56%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.69%EV -8.07%E -2.91%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 06:49
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 06:40
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.60%EV -4.76%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 06:59
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 06:54
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 40.50%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 06:59
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 07:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 07:14
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 40.00%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 06:44
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.32%E -2.75%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 06:54
Codere (IT)2.29I 43.67%NM 40.75%EV -6.73%E -2.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.10%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 06:59
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.80%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -2.10%E -0.712%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 03:25
Unibet (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.80%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -2.10%E -0.712%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 03:25
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 06:50
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 06:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -4.42%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 06:50
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -4.42%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 06:45
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 07:24
Bet Right2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 06:45
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.36%E -3.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-26 06:50
BetRivers2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%EV -9.17%E -4.11%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -4.80%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 03:25
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -10.39%E -4.72%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-26 06:50
LiveScore Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.26%EV -12.02%E -5.57%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 03:25
Virgin Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 42.26%EV -12.02%E -5.57%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -5.42%E -1.90%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 03:25
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.43%E -5.78%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -8.74%E -3.18%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-26 06:54
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.52%EV -12.43%E -5.78%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.22%EV -16.54%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-26 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 42.09%EV -12.84%E -6.00%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 03:25
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 41.19%EV -13.24%E -6.22%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.96%EV -11.84%E -3.50%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.86%EV -11.39%E -4.27%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-26 06:54
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.92%EV -16.50%E -8.05%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.65%EV -12.62%E -3.77%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.43%EV -12.06%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-26 06:55
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 41.00%EV -16.50%E -8.05%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.68%EV -17.84%E -5.66%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.32%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.57%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-26 06:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.84%6.5%2026-07-26 06:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.84%6.5%2026-07-26 06:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.84%6.5%2026-07-26 06:49
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 39.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%7.9%2026-07-26 07:10