The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Winnipeg Jets v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 01:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Winnipeg Jets (Local)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV +0.690%
Edge +0.251%
Kelly +0.394%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.57%36.56%38.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.622.7541.67%38.14%38.17%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 63.39%1.58fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.58%63.43%63.44%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.501.511.5671.94%66.50%66.23%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Winnipeg Jets (Local): 36.61%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 63.39%. For Winnipeg Jets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.690%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.690%E +0.251%K +0.394%G +0.003%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.09%E -5.58%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 21:55
Betsson🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV +0.323%E +0.118%K +0.186%G +0.001%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -8.09%E -5.58%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 23:45
NordicBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV +0.323%E +0.118%K +0.186%G +0.001%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -8.09%E -5.58%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 23:45
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.85%EV -0.409%E -0.150%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.15%EV -3.65%E -2.40%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-05 21:55
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -1.14%E -0.423%K -0.671%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -8.09%E -5.58%K -17.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 21:55
Bovada🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -1.87%E -0.699%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-05 22:03
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -2.61%E -0.980%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-05 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -2.61%E -0.980%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-05 16:39
BetAnything🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-05 16:24
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-05 12:15
GTbets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 16:29
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-05 21:05
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 16:39
Fliff🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -2.97%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.56%E -3.73%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 00:01
BetUS🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -3.70%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-05 16:25
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.70%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 23:45
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.70%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 23:45
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -3.70%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 23:45
Bet Right🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 23:45
Caesars🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 16:41
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 16:39
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-05 16:24
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-05 15:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-05 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.02%E -1.97%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-05 16:24
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.65%E -2.40%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-05 16:25
MyBookie.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-05 23:44
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 21:44
FanDuel🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -5.53%E -2.15%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -3.65%E -2.40%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-05 16:25
SportsBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -5.90%E -2.30%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -4.29%E -2.84%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-05 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 16:25
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 19:03
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 16:40
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.63%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.92%E -3.28%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -8.46%E -3.39%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -1.12%E -0.717%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-05 00:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.68%EV -12.13%E -5.05%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.32%EV -11.89%E -8.56%K -30.50%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-05 21:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.53%-0.0%2026-03-05 21:55
Novig◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94%1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06%0.1%2026-03-06 00:00
ProphetX◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-03-06 00:01
Polymarket◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-03-05 18:44
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-03-06 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.19%1.2%2026-03-06 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.19%1.2%2026-03-06 00:00
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.51%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.49%2.0%2026-03-06 00:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%2.9%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%2.9%2026-03-05 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%2.9%2026-03-05 23:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59%2.9%2026-03-05 23:45
1xBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.96%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.82%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.21%3.0%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%4.2%2026-03-05 23:45
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.57%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.6%2026-03-05 23:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.98%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.81%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.1%2026-03-05 23:45
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-03-05 23:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%6.8%2026-03-05 21:19
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%7.0%2026-03-05 23:45
LeoVegas🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%7.6%2026-03-05 23:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.31%8.0%2026-03-05 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 26.86%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%8.9%2026-03-05 23:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.1%2026-03-05 23:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%9.2%2026-03-05 23:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%10.0%2026-03-05 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%13.7%2026-03-05 23:45