The School of Odds
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Washington Capitals v Calgary Flames

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Capitals (Local)

Prediction 62.70%1.60fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.531%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.93%62.68%62.77%64.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.531.531.5971.94%65.51%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 37.30%2.68fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.432%
Kelly -0.693%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.99%37.32%37.23%39.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.552.562.6541.32%39.14%39.06%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Washington Capitals (Local): 62.70%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 37.30%. For Washington Capitals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -0.314%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.93%EV -0.314%E -0.197%K -0.531%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%EV -7.49%E -3.02%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-09 23:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.93%EV -0.314%E -0.197%K -0.531%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%EV -7.49%E -3.02%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-09 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -1.57%E -0.998%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -6.37%E -2.54%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-09 22:59
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -1.57%E -0.998%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-09 23:00
Everygame🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-09 22:59
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-09 23:00
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.19%E -1.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 23:00
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -2.82%E -1.82%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-09 22:58
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.45%E -2.24%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-09 23:00
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.45%E -2.24%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -5.25%E -2.07%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-08 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-09 16:34
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-09 16:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-09 13:59
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 23:00
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 18:45
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-09 13:55
Betsson🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.99%E -2.38%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 20:15
NordicBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -5.99%E -2.38%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 20:19
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 21:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:49
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.08%E -2.66%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.60%E -3.51%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 21:49
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 22:50
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-09 22:14
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 21:30
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.70%E -3.09%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.74%E -2.70%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 21:30
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -1.14%E -0.432%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 23:00
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -3.76%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-09 22:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.99%EV -5.33%E -3.53%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -4.13%E -1.61%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-09 20:28
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -1.14%E -0.432%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-09 21:59
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -1.14%E -0.432%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-09 22:00
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-09 20:24
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.01%E -1.16%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-09 19:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 17:04
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.96%E -3.97%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.87%E -1.91%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-09 22:58
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -6.58%E -4.42%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -1.14%E -0.432%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-09 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.52%EV -12.85%E -9.25%K -32.96%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.48%EV -9.72%E -4.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-09 17:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.66%2.75I 36.36%NM 36.34%0.1%2026-03-09 18:14
ProphetX◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%0.5%2026-03-09 22:59
Polymarket◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-03-09 17:10
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-03-09 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-03-09 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-03-09 22:59
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-08 21:30
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.53%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.47%1.9%2026-03-09 22:54
Novig◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.11%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.89%1.9%2026-03-09 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%3.1%2026-03-09 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%3.1%2026-03-09 21:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%3.1%2026-03-09 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%3.1%2026-03-09 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.11%4.0%2026-03-09 20:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.31%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%4.6%2026-03-09 22:59
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.62%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.68%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%4.7%2026-03-09 22:13
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.31%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.58%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.11%4.8%2026-03-09 22:59
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%4.8%2026-03-09 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%4.8%2026-03-09 22:00
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%4.8%2026-03-09 21:59
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%4.8%2026-03-09 21:59
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%6.3%2026-03-09 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-03-09 14:05
LeoVegas🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.37%7.6%2026-03-09 22:00
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%7.9%2026-03-09 22:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.8%2026-03-09 23:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.1%2026-03-09 22:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.66%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%9.1%2026-03-09 20:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-03-09 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.52%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%11.2%2026-03-09 22:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.54%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%13.7%2026-03-09 20:25