The School of Odds
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Vegas Golden Knights v Calgary Flames

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 02:08 UTC

Final: Vegas Golden Knights 6–2 Calgary Flames

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vegas Golden Knights (Local)

Prediction 70.82%1.41fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -8.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.69%70.97%72.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.351.3778.74%74.09%74.07%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Calgary Flames (Visit)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd
EV +0.655%
Edge +0.190%
Kelly +0.267%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.31%29.03%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.303.4533.33%30.72%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vegas Golden Knights (Local): 70.82%; Calgary Flames (Visit): 29.18%. For Calgary Flames (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.655%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fliff🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.51%E -4.93%K -20.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.655%E +0.190%K +0.267%G +0.002%4.7%2026-10-16 00:45
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -0.804%E -0.236%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 23:50
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -0.804%E -0.236%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 23:55
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -0.804%E -0.236%K -0.335%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 23:50
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.37%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -1.10%E -0.323%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-16 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.97%E -2.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-16 00:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.97%E -2.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-16 00:40
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 01:30
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 01:14
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 01:54
BetAnything🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 02:05
Paddy Power🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 21:35
GTbets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -2.26%E -0.675%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-15 21:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-15 21:35
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 21:35
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 23:25
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 21:35
FanDuel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 21:35
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 01:59
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 21:35
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.72%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 21:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.59%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -5.47%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 01:44
theScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -2.97%E -2.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 02:00
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 21:35
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 21:35
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 21:34
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 21:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 21:40
Caesars🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.09%E -3.80%K -14.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.64%E -2.07%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 02:00
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 21:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.39%E -3.25%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-15 21:35
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.56%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 02:05
ReBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -2.97%E -2.17%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -11.02%E -3.61%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 02:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.60%EV -10.05%E -7.92%K -37.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -11.02%E -3.61%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 02:00
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.47%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 01:45
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.47%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 01:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.68%E -2.70%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.47%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 02:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-10-16 02:00
Polymarket◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-16 02:05
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-15 21:35
Novig◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-16 02:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-10-16 01:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-10-16 01:10
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-10-16 01:50
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-10-16 02:05
BetOpenly◎1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%3.8%2026-10-16 01:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.54%1.8%2026-10-16 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.39%3.6%2026-10-15 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.39%3.6%2026-10-15 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.50%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.11%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.39%3.6%2026-10-15 23:50
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%4.6%2026-10-16 01:34
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.24%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.56%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.19%4.7%2026-10-16 01:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.11%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%4.9%2026-10-16 02:05
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%5.2%2026-10-15 23:54
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%5.2%2026-10-15 23:55
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%5.2%2026-10-15 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.34%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.64%5.2%2026-10-15 23:50
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.52%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.46%6.2%2026-10-15 23:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.51%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.95%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%6.6%2026-10-16 01:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.28%6.9%2026-10-16 02:00
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.62%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%7.6%2026-10-16 02:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%9.0%2026-10-16 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%9.4%2026-10-16 02:00
picklebet_au🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.65%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.81%10.5%2026-10-16 02:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%11.3%2026-10-16 02:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.35%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.09%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%11.8%2026-10-16 02:03
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.04%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.98%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.98%14.9%2026-10-16 01:35