The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Toronto Maple Leafs v Washington Capitals

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 23:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)

Prediction 41.41%2.41fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%41.46%41.33%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.302.302.3647.17%43.49%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Capitals (Visit)

Prediction 58.59%1.71fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.54%58.67%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.641.651.6766.67%61.13%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 41.41%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 58.59%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -2.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%EV -2.27%E -0.960%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%EV -2.74%E -1.65%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-08 22:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 15:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 15:20
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 21:00
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 22:59
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.50%E -2.76%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 21:09
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.50%E -2.76%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 21:10
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 22:14
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 22:08
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 23:29
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.68%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.26%E -3.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 14:19
NordicBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.09%E -1.32%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -6.26%E -3.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 22:10
Betsson🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.09%E -1.32%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -6.26%E -3.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 22:09
ReBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -3.51%E -1.51%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -3.92%E -2.39%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 23:24
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -3.51%E -1.51%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-08 21:09
Bet Right🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.92%E -1.69%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.92%E -2.39%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-08 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-07 22:20
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-08 14:50
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-08 17:54
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-08 14:50
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-08 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-08 17:54
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 17:54
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.09%E -3.14%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 20:45
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-08 21:40
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.75%E -2.07%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.26%E -3.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 14:09
BetUS🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -5.17%E -2.26%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-08 20:25
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -5.58%E -2.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-08 22:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.41%E -2.84%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 22:00
SportsBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -6.41%E -2.84%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -3.92%E -2.39%K -6.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.82%E -3.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.82%E -3.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 14:20
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.82%E -3.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.16%E -1.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 14:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.82%E -3.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 00:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.82%E -3.03%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.26%E -3.91%K -10.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 23:27
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.89%E -4.04%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 14:19
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.89%E -4.04%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.33%E -2.02%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 14:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -12.21%E -5.76%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -12.12%E -8.08%K -24.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-08 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.39I 41.84%NM 41.71%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.29%0.3%2026-04-08 21:55
Novig◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-04-08 23:29
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-04-08 23:30
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-04-08 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-04-08 23:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-04-08 23:10
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-04-08 23:30
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-04-08 23:30
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06%1.9%2026-04-08 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.86%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-04-08 21:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.86%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-04-08 21:09
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.86%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-04-08 21:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.86%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%3.0%2026-04-08 21:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%4.0%2026-04-08 23:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.7%2026-04-08 23:28
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.8%2026-04-08 22:24
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.17%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.75%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.08%4.8%2026-04-08 23:29
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%5.1%2026-04-08 17:29
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%5.1%2026-04-08 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%5.1%2026-04-08 21:09
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%5.1%2026-04-08 21:09
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%6.6%2026-04-08 21:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-04-08 22:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.32%7.9%2026-04-08 23:28
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.42%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%8.1%2026-04-08 23:29
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.81%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%8.2%2026-04-08 21:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.14%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-04-08 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.01%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%9.3%2026-04-08 23:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.67%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%9.3%2026-04-08 23:29
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%12.1%2026-04-08 21:10