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Toronto Maple Leafs v Carolina Hurricanes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%33.82%33.73%34.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.822.803.0038.17%35.52%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carolina Hurricanes (Visit)
Prediction 66.19%1.51fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -4.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.01%66.18%66.27%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.441.451.4875.76%69.36%68.97%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 33.81%; Carolina Hurricanes (Visit): 66.19%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV +1.44%E +0.480%K +0.720%G +0.010% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV +1.44%E +0.480%K +0.720%G +0.010% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.44%E +0.480%K +0.720%G +0.010% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 21:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56%EV -1.60%E -0.551%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.94%E -0.669%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.35%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -2.95%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -2.95%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.95%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -2.95%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 22:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 19:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.35%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 20:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.95%EV -3.97%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.05%EV -3.37%E -2.31%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -4.31%E -1.52%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-20 22:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.37%E -2.31%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-19 21:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 02:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 05:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-20 22:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -6.34%E -2.29%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.04%E -1.38%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-20 22:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 21:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 21:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.35%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -7.35%E -2.68%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -7.35%E -2.68%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.41%E -4.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.63%E -9.57%K -39.48%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 34.08% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.92% | -0.2% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77% | 0.0% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 1.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.87I 34.84%NM 34.32% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.68% | 1.5% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.1% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 21:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.59% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 21:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.77% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.94% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.30% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 22:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.01% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.99% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.00% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.71% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 22:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34% | 6.9% | 2026-03-20 22:48 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64% | 7.5% | 2026-03-20 21:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57% | 7.6% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.78% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01% | 8.7% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.32% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86% | 8.9% | 2026-03-20 22:55 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.19% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.05% | 9.2% | 2026-03-20 22:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59% | 10.4% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09% | 10.6% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.16% | 11.2% | 2026-03-20 23:00 |