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Toronto Maple Leafs v Anaheim Ducks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toronto Maple Leafs (Local)
Prediction 50.89%1.97fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%50.82%51.05%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.881.881.9357.80%53.29%53.19%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Anaheim Ducks (Visit)
Prediction 49.11%2.04fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%49.18%48.95%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.931.942.0156.18%51.74%51.55%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (Local): 50.89%; Anaheim Ducks (Visit): 49.11%. For Anaheim Ducks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.01, with an expected value of -1.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -1.79%E -0.925%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -7.67%E -4.08%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 22:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.80%E -1.47%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.31%E -1.74%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.29%E -0.639%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -3.31%E -1.74%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.72%E -2.43%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.31%E -1.74%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.69%E -3.52%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.82%E -2.02%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.21%E -2.70%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.82%E -2.02%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.21%E -2.70%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -3.82%E -2.02%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.71%E -2.97%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.58%EV -2.27%E -1.14%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.42%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.58%EV -2.27%E -1.14%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.67%E -4.08%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.33%E -2.30%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.67%E -4.08%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.59%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV -5.35%E -2.88%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -2.27%E -1.14%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -5.35%E -2.88%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -5.35%E -2.88%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -5.35%E -2.88%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -4.72%E -2.43%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.23%E -2.17%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.87%E -3.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.78%E -0.888%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.87%E -3.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.78%E -0.888%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.87%E -3.76%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.20%E -3.24%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.71%EV -11.96%E -6.92%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -12.58%E -7.07%K -16.13%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-12 22:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.50% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 49.50% | 0.5% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.37% | 1.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.89% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 49.11% | 1.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24% | 1.5% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36% | 1.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.23% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62% | 2.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.23% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62% | 2.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.23% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62% | 2.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.23% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.15% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62% | 2.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.08% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.42% | 3.7% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.51% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.25% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.15% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22% | 4.6% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.12% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.89% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.00% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.19% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.19% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.19% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.19% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.40% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.20% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40% | 6.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.26% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68% | 7.6% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07% | 8.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85% | 9.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.66% | 9.0% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.01% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.09% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90% | 9.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70% | 10.1% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.01% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.20% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.79% | 11.1% | 2026-03-12 23:02 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.16% | 14.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |