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Tampa Bay Lightning v Seattle Kraken
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 71.77%1.39fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -6.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.33%71.75%71.88%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.331.331.3681.97%75.08%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Seattle Kraken (Visit)
Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.485%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%28.25%28.12%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.403.5031.75%29.79%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 71.77%; Seattle Kraken (Visit): 28.23%. For Seattle Kraken (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -2.39%E -1.75%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.37%EV -2.39%E -1.75%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.37%EV -2.39%E -1.75%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -2.39%E -1.75%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.11%EV -3.10%E -2.30%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.89%EV -1.49%E -0.428%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.10%E -2.30%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 23:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -3.82%E -2.85%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -1.21%E -0.346%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-26 23:03 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.62%E -0.760%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -2.62%E -0.760%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.27%E -2.54%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -2.62%E -0.760%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 22:56 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.03%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.97%E -4.56%K -19.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.68%E -3.02%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.86%E -2.08%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-26 23:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.08%EV -12.43%E -10.19%K -56.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -11.09%E -3.52%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-26 23:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.4% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-03-26 23:03 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.75% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.07% | 3.8% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.75% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.07% | 3.8% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.75% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.07% | 3.8% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.75% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.18% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.07% | 3.8% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.78% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.01% | 4.1% | 2026-03-26 23:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.13% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93% | 4.5% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.44% | 4.73I 21.14%NM 20.19% | 4.93I 20.28%NM 19.37% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.68% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89% | 4.7% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.71% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.28% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.71% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.28% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.71% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.28% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.71% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.28% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.49% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38% | 6.7% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.05% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93% | 6.7% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.70% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70% | 7.4% | 2026-03-26 23:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.72% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13% | 8.0% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.63% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41% | 8.9% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.62% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.75% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.63% | 8.9% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.62% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.75% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.63% | 8.9% | 2026-03-26 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.61% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86% | 8.9% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.20% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47% | 9.3% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.87% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.87% | 10.6% | 2026-03-26 23:05 |