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Tampa Bay Lightning v Ottawa Senators
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 60.28%1.66fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.05%60.20%60.30%60.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.591.6365.36%62.89%62.89%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ottawa Senators (Visit)
Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.35%39.80%39.70%40.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.4543.48%41.67%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 60.28%; Ottawa Senators (Visit): 39.72%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -1.74%E -1.07%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-27 17:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.95%E -1.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.69%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.95%E -1.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.69%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -2.95%E -1.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -3.09%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -2.95%E -1.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.88%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-27 21:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -2.95%E -1.83%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.88%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 02:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.55%E -2.22%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 19:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.69%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-28 02:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.69%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-28 02:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-28 00:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.88%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 17:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 19:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 21:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 20:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.88%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.07%E -2.12%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.07%E -2.12%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.87%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -5.87%E -2.48%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 19:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.76%E -3.01%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.66%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-28 02:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -5.36%E -3.41%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -3.88%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-28 02:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.36%E -3.41%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.36%E -3.41%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.47%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-27 15:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.77%E -5.08%K -14.66%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.65%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-28 02:11 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 0.2% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 0.5% | 2026-03-28 02:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38% | 1.5% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-03-28 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-03-28 03:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39% | 2.3% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.21% | 8.3% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.05% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.26% | 3.0% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.02% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87% | 4.1% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.06% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.70% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-28 02:18 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.79% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.98% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.40% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70% | 4.9% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.53% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59% | 5.4% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38% | 6.4% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31% | 6.7% | 2026-03-28 02:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25% | 7.5% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64% | 7.7% | 2026-03-27 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.90% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43% | 8.7% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20% | 9.1% | 2026-03-28 03:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20% | 9.1% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26% | 10.3% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26% | 10.3% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.36% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.91% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.73% | 17.3% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |