The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tampa Bay Lightning v Minnesota Wild

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 23:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Prediction 58.58%1.71fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.946%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%58.69%58.56%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.631.631.6866.67%61.40%61.35%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Wild (Visit)

Prediction 41.42%2.41fair odd
EV +0.656%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.459%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%41.31%41.44%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.312.322.4347.17%43.23%43.10%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 58.58%; Minnesota Wild (Visit): 41.42%. For Minnesota Wild (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.656%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.656%E +0.270%K +0.459%G +0.003%3.7%2026-03-24 23:34
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.656%E +0.270%K +0.459%G +0.003%3.7%2026-03-24 23:35
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.586%E -0.244%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 23:34
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.586%E -0.244%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:26
Everygame🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -2.24%E -0.951%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-24 23:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-24 23:35
ReBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-24 23:29
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-24 23:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 23:34
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%EV -1.59%E -0.946%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Bet Right🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-24 23:33
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 23:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 23:35
BetAnything🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-24 23:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-24 23:33
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 23:34
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:34
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:29
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:35
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-24 23:35
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.56%E -2.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:34
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.97%E -2.63%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:35
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.97%E -2.63%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:33
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:35
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:34
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-24 23:32
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -1.59%E -0.946%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -7.21%E -3.22%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-24 23:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -12.13%E -8.09%K -24.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -12.18%E -5.75%K -10.88%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-24 23:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86%2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14%0.0%2026-03-24 23:29
ProphetX◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-03-24 23:35
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-03-24 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-03-24 23:35
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08%1.6%2026-03-24 23:35
Novig◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%1.7%2026-03-24 23:35
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-03-24 23:35
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%2.3%2026-03-24 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%4.3%2026-03-24 23:29
Coolbet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.06%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%4.6%2026-03-24 23:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.80%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.7%2026-03-24 23:29
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.79%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.14%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.07%4.8%2026-03-24 23:29
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%5.6%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:34
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:34
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:35
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%6.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-03-24 23:35
LeoVegas🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%7.7%2026-03-24 23:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%8.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%8.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.64%9.0%2026-03-24 23:27
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%9.4%2026-03-24 23:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.16%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%9.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.54%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%10.2%2026-03-24 23:31