La escuela de los momios

Tampa Bay Lightning v Minnesota Wild

Inicio: 2026-03-24 23:40 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Predicción 58.58%1.71momio equitativo
EV -1.59%
Ventaja -0.946%
Kelly -2.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.14%58.69%58.56%60.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.631.631.6866.67%61.40%61.35%59.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Minnesota Wild (Visitante)

Predicción 41.42%2.41momio equitativo
EV +0.656%
Ventaja +0.270%
Kelly +0.459%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.55%41.31%41.44%42.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.122.312.322.4347.17%43.23%43.10%41.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.656%E +0.270%K +0.459%G +0.003%3.7%2026-03-24 23:34
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.656%E +0.270%K +0.459%G +0.003%3.7%2026-03-24 23:35
theScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.586%E -0.244%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 23:34
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.586%E -0.244%K -0.419%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:26
Everygame1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -2.24%E -0.951%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-24 23:34
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-24 23:35
ReBet1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-24 23:29
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-24 23:35
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.66%E -1.13%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 23:34
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%EV -1.59%E -0.946%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Bet Right1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -3.49%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-24 23:33
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 23:35
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 23:35
BetAnything1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-24 23:35
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.90%E -1.68%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-24 23:33
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.31%E -1.87%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 23:34
GTbets1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:35
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 23:34
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:29
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.73%E -2.06%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:35
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -2.18%E -1.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-24 23:35
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.56%E -2.44%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-24 23:34
NordicBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.97%E -2.63%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:35
Betsson1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.52%E -2.77%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.97%E -2.63%K -4.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:33
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:35
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:34
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.80%E -3.02%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-24 23:32
DraftKings1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -1.59%E -0.946%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -7.21%E -3.22%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-24 23:35
NetBet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -12.13%E -8.09%K -24.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -12.18%E -5.75%K -10.88%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-24 23:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86%2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14%0.0%2026-03-24 23:29
ProphetX1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-03-24 23:35
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-03-24 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-03-24 23:35
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08%1.6%2026-03-24 23:35
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%1.7%2026-03-24 23:35
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-03-24 23:35
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%2.3%2026-03-24 23:35

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
ATG (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%4.3%2026-03-24 23:29
Coolbet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.06%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%4.6%2026-03-24 23:34
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.80%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.00%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%4.7%2026-03-24 23:29
1xBet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.79%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.14%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.07%4.8%2026-03-24 23:29
Unibet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%5.6%2026-03-24 23:35
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:34
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:34
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%5.8%2026-03-24 23:35
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%6.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-03-24 23:35
LeoVegas1.89I 52.91%NM 49.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%7.7%2026-03-24 23:34
Winamax (DE)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%8.2%2026-03-24 23:34
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%8.3%2026-03-24 23:34
Parions Sport (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.79%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.64%9.0%2026-03-24 23:27
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%9.4%2026-03-24 23:29
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.16%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.98%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%9.4%2026-03-24 23:34
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.54%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%10.2%2026-03-24 23:31