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Pittsburgh Penguins v Vegas Golden Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Penguins (Local)
Prediction 42.51%2.35fair odd
EV -0.103%
Edge -0.044%
Kelly -0.076%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.46%42.50%43.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.252.252.3548.31%44.46%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vegas Golden Knights (Visit)
Prediction 57.49%1.74fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%57.54%57.50%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.661.671.7065.36%60.18%59.88%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Penguins (Local): 42.51%; Vegas Golden Knights (Visit): 57.49%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.352. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.350, with an expected value of -0.103%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.103%E -0.044%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.103%E -0.044%K -0.076%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -0.528%E -0.226%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -0.953%E -0.409%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -0.953%E -0.409%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.23%E -0.969%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.23%E -0.969%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%EV -3.08%E -1.35%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%EV -2.27%E -1.33%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-01 17:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -3.93%E -1.74%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -4.57%E -2.75%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-01 17:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.84%E -1.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.84%E -1.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-01 15:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.84%E -1.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-01 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 16:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 15:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 15:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 15:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 16:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 16:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 17:47 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.35%E -1.94%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.78%E -2.13%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.42%E -2.03%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -3.42%E -2.03%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -3.42%E -2.03%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.20%E -2.33%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.57%E -2.75%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -5.63%E -2.54%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.42%E -2.03%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 16:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.99%E -2.39%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 16:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 17:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 23:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.48%E -2.95%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.14%E -3.12%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 23:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -12.01%E -5.80%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.04%E -7.87%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-01 16:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.61% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.39% | 0.7% | 2026-03-01 18:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 18:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 17:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 1.1% | 2026-03-01 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 17:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36% | 2.0% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.26% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.23% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.51% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.04% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.34% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.62% | 4.0% | 2026-03-01 16:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.42% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.33% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.5% | 2026-03-01 17:18 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.40% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.52% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.08% | 4.6% | 2026-03-01 17:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.35% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36% | 6.5% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22% | 7.1% | 2026-03-01 17:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.21% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61% | 7.9% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.30% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52% | 8.3% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.69% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.42% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88% | 8.8% | 2026-03-01 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.93% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91% | 9.1% | 2026-03-01 17:44 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.42% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05% | 9.8% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.22% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.43% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.35% | 10.5% | 2026-03-01 18:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 44.78% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08% | 11.1% | 2026-03-01 17:59 |