The School of Odds
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Ottawa Senators v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ottawa Senators (Local)

Prediction 56.02%1.79fair odd
EV -0.846%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.90%56.04%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.711.721.7763.69%58.35%58.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 43.98%2.27fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%44.10%43.96%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.162.2350.00%46.35%46.30%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Senators (Local): 56.02%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 43.98%. For Ottawa Senators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -0.846%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -0.846%E -0.478%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-07 22:59
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.97%E -1.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.97%E -1.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.97%E -1.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.84%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.97%E -1.12%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.84%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-07 22:59
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -2.53%E -1.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -1.92%E -0.862%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.53%E -1.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-07 22:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.53%E -1.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-07 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -2.80%E -1.27%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-07 23:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -2.80%E -1.27%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-07 23:00
ReBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.56%E -2.10%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 22:59
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -5.00%E -2.32%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-07 23:00
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -5.00%E -2.32%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-07 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -5.00%E -2.32%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-07 23:00
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-07 23:00
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.09%E -1.78%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -6.76%E -3.19%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.65%E -2.12%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-07 22:57
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.65%E -2.12%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-07 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.65%E -2.12%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.76%E -3.19%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 23:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 23:00
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 23:00
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 23:00
Everygame🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-07 23:00
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.12%E -1.89%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-07 22:59
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.21%E -2.46%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 23:00
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.77%E -2.80%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.77%E -2.80%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 22:59
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.77%E -2.80%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 22:59
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.33%E -3.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.89%E -3.50%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.89%E -3.50%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.12%E -1.89%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-07 23:00
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.89%E -3.50%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.12%E -1.89%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-07 22:59
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.45%E -3.86%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-07 23:00
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.57%E -4.59%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.24%E -1.47%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-07 23:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -12.05%E -7.67%K -21.14%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -12.04%E -6.02%K -12.04%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-07 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.51%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.49%-0.0%2026-04-07 22:59
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-04-07 23:00
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-04-07 23:00
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.82%2.29I 43.67%NM 43.18%1.1%2026-04-07 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Novig◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-04-07 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.40%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.40%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-04-07 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.40%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.40%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-04-07 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.91%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.73%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%4.0%2026-04-07 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.51%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%4.5%2026-04-07 22:58
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.97%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.64%4.8%2026-04-07 22:59
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%4.8%2026-04-07 23:00
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%4.9%2026-04-07 22:59
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.44%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%6.1%2026-04-07 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-04-07 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.68%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%8.0%2026-04-07 23:00
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.00%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%8.4%2026-04-07 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%8.5%2026-04-07 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.82%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.72%8.7%2026-04-07 22:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%9.0%2026-04-07 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%9.6%2026-04-07 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.28%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%10.0%2026-04-07 22:57
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.59%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%12.1%2026-04-07 23:00