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Montréal Canadiens v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 23:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montréal Canadiens (Local)

Prediction 60.18%1.66fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%60.17%60.15%61.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.591.601.6268.97%62.83%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.997%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%39.83%39.85%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.392.402.4545.05%41.93%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 60.18%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 39.82%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -2.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -2.51%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -2.44%E -0.997%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-10 22:25
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.51%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 22:00
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.51%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.51%E -1.55%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.44%E -0.997%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-10 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 22:00
Everygame🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-10 13:15
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-10 16:05
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -5.63%E -2.37%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-10 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -3.11%E -1.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -6.03%E -2.55%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 23:00
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.03%E -2.55%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 20:18
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:30
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 18:30
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-10 19:30
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.71%E -2.32%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-10 23:00
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-09 17:33
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-10 22:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.64%E -1.50%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-09 16:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 18:20
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 22:59
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 15:40
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-10 22:59
Betsson🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-10 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.31%E -2.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-10 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.91%E -3.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.52%E -3.51%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.44%E -0.997%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-09 21:30
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.52%E -3.51%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.44%E -0.997%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-09 21:29
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.52%E -3.51%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.23%E -2.20%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-09 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.44%E -0.997%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 16:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.12%E -3.92%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-10 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.72%E -4.34%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.43%E -1.85%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 22:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.49%EV -12.74%E -8.79%K -28.31%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.51%EV -11.60%E -5.23%K -9.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-10 20:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.42%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58%0.2%2026-03-10 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-03-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-03-10 22:30
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-10 13:04
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.2%2026-03-10 23:00
Novig◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-03-10 23:00
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-03-10 22:20
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.9%2026-03-10 23:00
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-03-10 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-10 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-10 11:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-10 11:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-03-10 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.05%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.79%4.3%2026-03-10 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.06%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%4.7%2026-03-10 22:59
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.73%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.66%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.61%4.7%2026-03-10 22:59
Coolbet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.07%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%5.0%2026-03-10 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-10 11:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-10 11:40
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-10 11:40
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-10 11:39
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%6.5%2026-03-10 11:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-03-10 14:35
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%7.4%2026-03-10 02:59
LeoVegas🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%7.5%2026-03-10 11:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%8.7%2026-03-10 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.7%2026-03-10 23:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.11%9.0%2026-03-10 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%9.3%2026-03-10 20:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%9.8%2026-03-10 20:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.25%11.0%2026-03-10 22:54