The School of Odds
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Montréal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montréal Canadiens (Local)

Prediction 47.93%2.09fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.10%47.78%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.982.002.0254.64%50.62%50.13%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 52.07%1.92fair odd
EV -0.540%
Edge -0.283%
Kelly -0.593%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.90%52.22%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.831.9158.82%54.41%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 47.93%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 52.07%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -0.540%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%EV -3.19%E -1.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%EV -2.10%E -1.12%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-09 22:55
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.19%E -1.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.23%E -2.87%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 15:53
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 22:59
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 12:19
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 15:55
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 15:04
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 22:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 12:19
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 15:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 15:05
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:00
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:00
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:00
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 15:59
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-09 23:05
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -5.75%E -3.18%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 16:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.15%E -2.07%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.27%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 19:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.63%E -2.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 22:59
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -3.14%E -1.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 22:45
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.27%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.27%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.58%E -2.83%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 20:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -6.06%E -3.09%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -0.540%E -0.283%K -0.593%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%EV -6.06%E -3.09%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%EV -0.540%E -0.283%K -0.593%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-09 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.06%E -3.09%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 22:05
Betsson🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.06%E -3.09%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.19%E -2.27%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 22:04
Bally Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -2.10%E -1.12%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 15:05
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -2.10%E -1.12%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 11:44
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 22:40
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.66%E -1.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-09 21:44
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.54%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.27%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 22:55
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -7.02%E -3.62%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -2.62%E -1.40%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 15:05
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.46%E -4.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.540%E -0.283%K -0.593%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-09 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.46%E -4.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.71%E -2.57%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -12.29%E -6.72%K -14.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.84%EV -11.48%E -6.75%K -16.39%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-09 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-04-09 19:00
Polymarket◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-04-09 19:00
Novig◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%1.4%2026-04-09 23:05
BetOpenly◎2.01I 49.75%NM 48.72%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.28%2.1%2026-04-09 22:59
ProphetX◎2.09I 47.85%NM 46.82%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.18%2.2%2026-04-09 23:05
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.7%2026-04-09 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%3.0%2026-04-09 23:05
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%6.1%2026-04-09 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-04-09 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-04-09 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-04-09 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-04-09 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.07%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.62%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.31%3.0%2026-04-09 20:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.65%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%4.7%2026-04-09 22:59
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.27%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%4.8%2026-04-09 22:59
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-04-09 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-04-09 15:05
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-04-09 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%5.2%2026-04-09 15:05
Coolbet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.96%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%5.3%2026-04-09 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.99%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.59%5.3%2026-04-09 23:04
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.99%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%6.1%2026-04-09 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%6.9%2026-04-09 19:59
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.08%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%7.2%2026-04-09 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.32%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.82%7.8%2026-04-09 23:02
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.32%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.82%7.8%2026-04-09 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%8.5%2026-04-09 22:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.28%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%8.8%2026-04-09 23:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.64%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%9.2%2026-04-09 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.91%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%9.9%2026-04-09 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%12.0%2026-04-09 15:05