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Montréal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prediction 47.95%2.09fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.593%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.14%48.06%47.78%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.982.002.0654.05%50.43%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)
Prediction 52.05%1.92fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%51.94%52.22%52.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.831.831.8959.52%54.56%54.64%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montréal Canadiens (Local): 47.95%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 52.05%. For Montréal Canadiens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.22%E -0.593%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-01 23:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -2.18%E -1.07%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -2.66%E -1.31%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.14%E -1.55%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.20%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-01 22:58 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.20%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-01 22:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-01 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 21:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.58%E -2.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.54%E -2.81%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -6.02%E -3.07%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.02%E -3.07%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 22:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 21:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -7.46%E -3.86%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -1.63%E -0.860%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.41%E -4.41%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.89%E -4.68%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -11.29%E -6.10%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.41%EV -12.56%E -7.47%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.09I 47.85%NM 47.62% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.38% | 0.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-01 21:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-01 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 22:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.35% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.67% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.98% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.20% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.49% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.12% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.46% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 21:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.25% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 23:03 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42% | 6.8% | 2026-05-01 21:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.09% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.47% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62% | 7.2% | 2026-05-01 23:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78% | 12.1% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |