L’École des cotesFrançais
Montréal Canadiens v Tampa Bay Lightning
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Montréal Canadiens (Local)
Prévision 47.95%2.09cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.593%
Kelly -1.15%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.06
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.14%48.06%47.78%49.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.851.982.002.0654.05%50.43%50.00%48.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Tampa Bay Lightning (Visiteur)
Prévision 52.05%1.92cote équitable
EV -1.63%
Avantage -0.860%
Kelly -1.83%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.89
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.52%51.94%52.22%52.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.681.831.831.8959.52%54.56%54.64%52.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
21 opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.22%E -0.593%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-01 23:00 |
| Bally Bet | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -2.18%E -1.07%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -5.27%E -2.90%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| BetAnything | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -2.66%E -1.31%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -5.79%E -3.20%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| betPARX | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.14%E -1.55%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.20%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-01 22:58 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.20%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-01 22:54 |
| ReBet | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -3.62%E -1.80%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-01 22:50 |
| Coral | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:14 |
| Bet Right | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| DraftKings | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:05 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Caesars | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| BetRivers | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| GTbets | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
| theScore Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| TAB | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 21:05 |
| Fliff | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.10%E -2.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.58%E -2.30%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| BetMGM | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| PlayUp | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:25 |
| Betsson | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.06%E -2.55%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:30 |
| Bovada | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.54%E -2.81%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| FanDuel | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -6.02%E -3.07%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.02%E -3.07%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.67%E -1.43%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.71%E -2.00%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 22:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 21:15 |
| Neds | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.50%E -3.33%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 21:14 |
| BetUS | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -7.46%E -3.86%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -1.63%E -0.860%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-01 22:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.41%E -4.41%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.75%E -2.60%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Bet Victor | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.89%E -4.68%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.31%E -3.51%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -11.29%E -6.10%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.41%EV -12.56%E -7.47%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-01 21:04 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (9)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Matchbook | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Novig | 2.09I 47.85%NM 47.62% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.38% | 0.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| ProphetX | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Kalshi | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-01 21:55 |
| Polymarket | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-01 21:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| BetOpenly | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 22:54 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (21)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| 1xBet | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.35% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.67% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.98% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.20% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.49% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31% | 4.6% | 2026-05-01 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Grosvenor | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.29% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.89% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |
| Unibet | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Casumo | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Coolbet | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.12% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.46% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 21:09 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.25% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 23:03 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| TABtouch | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81% | 6.3% | 2026-05-01 22:49 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.73% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42% | 6.8% | 2026-05-01 21:09 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.09% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| LeoVegas | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.47% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62% | 7.2% | 2026-05-01 23:03 |
| Betway | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 23:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.68% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78% | 12.1% | 2026-05-01 23:05 |