La escuela de los momios

Minnesota Wild v Philadelphia Flyers

Inicio: 2026-03-13 00:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Minnesota Wild (Local)

Predicción 66.55%1.50momio equitativo
EV -2.17%
Ventaja -1.48%
Kelly -4.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.48%66.63%66.47%67.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.431.441.4775.76%69.85%69.44%68.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Philadelphia Flyers (Visitante)

Predicción 33.45%2.99momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.446%
Kelly -0.675%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.56%33.37%33.53%34.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.622.862.872.9538.17%35.00%34.84%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

22 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetUS1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.17%E -1.48%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -5.33%E -1.88%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-13 00:07
Pinnacle1.46I 68.49%NM 66.82%EV -2.84%E -1.95%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.18%EV -1.65%E -0.561%K -0.851%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-13 00:06
LowVig.ag1.46I 68.49%NM 66.44%EV -2.84%E -1.95%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.56%EV -3.32%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-13 00:09
BetOnline.ag1.46I 68.49%NM 66.44%EV -2.84%E -1.95%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.56%EV -3.32%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-13 00:09
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.51%E -2.42%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.33%E -2.26%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:07
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.51%E -2.42%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.33%E -2.26%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:06
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.51%E -2.42%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.01%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 00:08
ReBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.90%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.10%EV -2.65%E -0.912%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 23:59
theScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-13 00:09
Bet Right1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -3.66%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -3.99%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 00:09
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -3.99%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 00:10
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:09
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:09
Caesars1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:09
GTbets1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:07
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:09
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:08
BetAnything1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.66%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:06
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.01%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.17%E -2.90%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.01%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 00:09
Bovada1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.32%E -0.446%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 00:08
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.32%E -0.446%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 00:10
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.32%E -0.446%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 00:09
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-13 00:09
Paddy Power1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -3.66%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:10
FanDuel1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -3.66%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -3.66%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:09
MyBookie.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV -3.99%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 00:01
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -4.84%E -3.38%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -4.33%E -1.51%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 00:10
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.17%E -4.37%K -15.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-13 00:09
Betsson1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.17%E -4.37%K -15.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-13 00:09
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.83%E -4.88%K -17.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 00:10
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.83%E -4.88%K -17.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.99%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 00:09
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.83%E -4.88%K -17.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.33%E -2.26%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 00:02
Hard Rock Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.83%E -4.88%K -17.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.33%E -2.26%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 00:09
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.16%E -9.21%K -37.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -12.35%E -4.72%K -7.63%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-12 23:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.49I 67.11%NM 67.11%3.04I 32.89%NM 32.89%0.0%2026-03-12 23:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-03-13 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%1.4%2026-03-13 00:10
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.6%2026-03-13 00:10
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 67.63%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.37%2.0%2026-03-13 00:10
Polymarket1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-03-13 00:10
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27%3.5%2026-03-13 00:10
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.48%7.3%2026-03-13 00:10

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (22)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-13 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-13 00:10
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-13 00:10
Svenska Spel1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%3.0%2026-03-13 00:09
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.25%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%3.6%2026-03-13 00:10
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%4.7%2026-03-12 23:58
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.75%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.07%4.8%2026-03-12 23:59
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.12%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.14%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%4.9%2026-03-13 00:05
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%5.3%2026-03-13 00:10
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%5.3%2026-03-13 00:09
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%5.3%2026-03-13 00:09
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%5.3%2026-03-13 00:10
TABtouch1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%6.3%2026-03-13 00:10
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%6.7%2026-03-13 00:10
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%6.7%2026-03-13 00:10
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 57.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%7.6%2026-03-13 00:09
Codere (IT)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%8.8%2026-03-13 00:01
Parions Sport (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%9.0%2026-03-13 00:00
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.9%2026-03-13 00:10
Betclic (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%10.7%2026-03-13 00:06
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.27%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%11.0%2026-03-13 00:02
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 53.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.27%16.6%2026-03-13 00:09