La escuela de los momios

Carolina Hurricanes v Philadelphia Flyers

Inicio: 2026-05-03 00:15 UTC

Final: Carolina Hurricanes 3–0 Philadelphia Flyers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Carolina Hurricanes (Local)

Predicción 68.46%1.46momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.983%
Kelly -3.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.27%68.41%68.38%70.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.291.391.401.4477.52%71.77%71.43%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Philadelphia Flyers (Visitante)

Predicción 31.54%3.17momio equitativo
EV +4.71%
Ventaja +1.42%
Kelly +2.03%
Crecimiento +0.096%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.21%31.59%31.62%33.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.033.013.3236.36%33.05%33.17%30.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag1.37I 72.99%NM 70.79%EV -6.21%E -4.53%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.21%EV +4.71%E +1.42%K +2.03%G +0.096%3.1%2026-05-03 00:10
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.93%EV +1.87%E +0.579%K +0.839%G +0.016%3.4%2026-05-03 00:10
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%EV -4.84%E -3.48%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV +0.925%E +0.289%K +0.420%G +0.004%3.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Bovada1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -6.21%E -4.53%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV +0.925%E +0.289%K +0.420%G +0.004%4.2%2026-05-03 00:10
theScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 69.06%EV -2.79%E -1.96%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.94%EV -0.021%E -0.007%K -0.010%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-03 00:10
BetAnything1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.652%E -0.207%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.652%E -0.207%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 00:10
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.652%E -0.207%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Pinnacle1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -3.47%E -2.46%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.06%EV -1.28%E -0.410%K -0.602%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 00:09
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.23%E -0.719%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.23%E -0.719%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 00:10
GTbets1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.23%E -0.719%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 00:09
Caesars1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.23%E -0.719%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 00:09
Fliff1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.52%E -4.00%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.23%E -0.719%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 00:10
DraftKings1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.81%E -1.25%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.81%E -1.25%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 00:09
FanDuel1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.84%E -3.48%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -3.81%E -1.25%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 00:10
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.84%E -3.48%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -4.44%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.38%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 00:10
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.38%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.38%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 00:10
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.38%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 00:10
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.38%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 00:10
MyBookie.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -6.64%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 00:03
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.96%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 00:06
Betsson1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.96%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 00:10
NordicBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.96%E -2.36%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 00:10
ReBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.90%EV -1.42%E -0.983%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.10%EV -8.22%E -2.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 23:59
Fanatics1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.10%E -1.47%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -8.54%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 00:10
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.54%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.54%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.54%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 00:10
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.54%E -2.94%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Hard Rock Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.69%E -4.18%K -6.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 00:10
NetBet (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -11.69%E -9.06%K -40.29%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.77%EV -12.64%E -4.56%K -7.14%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-03 00:00
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.15%E -2.97%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.27%E -4.82%K -7.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 00:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%0.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%0.2%2026-05-03 00:10
BetOpenly1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-05-02 23:59
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Polymarket1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Novig1.43I 69.93%NM 69.25%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.75%1.0%2026-05-03 00:10
ProphetX1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 67.46%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.54%8.2%2026-05-03 00:08
Matchbook1.33I 75.19%NM 67.64%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.36%11.2%2026-05-03 00:10

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%3.1%2026-05-03 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-05-03 00:10
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.25%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.50%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.25%4.6%2026-05-03 00:08
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.25%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.03%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.72%4.6%2026-05-02 23:59
1xBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.53%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%4.7%2026-05-02 23:59
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%4.9%2026-05-03 00:10
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-05-03 00:10
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.69%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%5.0%2026-05-03 00:10
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%5.1%2026-05-03 00:10
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%5.1%2026-05-03 00:10
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.47%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-05-03 00:10
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 56.84%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%6.0%2026-05-03 00:10
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%7.0%2026-05-03 00:10
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%7.0%2026-05-02 23:59
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%7.4%2026-05-03 00:10
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%7.5%2026-05-03 00:10
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%7.5%2026-05-03 00:10
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%8.4%2026-05-03 00:10
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.70%12.4%2026-05-03 00:10