The School of Odds
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Calgary Flames v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-03-23 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Calgary Flames (Local)

Prediction 39.34%2.54fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.662%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.39%39.20%41.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.402.5044.44%41.41%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 60.66%1.65fair odd
EV +0.093%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.54%60.61%60.80%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.581.581.6569.93%63.26%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Calgary Flames (Local): 39.34%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 60.66%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.648. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.650, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.093%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -8.34%E -3.58%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV +0.093%E +0.056%K +0.142%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-23 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -1.12%E -0.688%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-23 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -1.12%E -0.688%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-23 00:00
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.33%E -1.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 23:30
Everygame🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.33%E -1.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-22 14:00
BetUS🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -4.80%E -1.98%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -2.33%E -1.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 23:29
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -2.33%E -1.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 00:04
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -2.05%E -0.823%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -2.94%E -1.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-23 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.94%E -1.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 23:00
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.94%E -1.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 23:00
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.94%E -1.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 00:05
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 14:54
Paddy Power🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.81%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.41%E -1.81%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 00:04
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-23 00:04
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-23 00:04
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.55%E -2.23%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 22:59
ReBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -3.23%E -1.31%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 23:05
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 00:04
MyBookie.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 17:15
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -6.77%E -2.86%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-23 00:05
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-23 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 23:00
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.56%E -3.22%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.15%E -2.63%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 23:00
Caesars🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -2.44%E -0.985%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-23 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 08:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-23 00:04
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.76%E -3.03%K -8.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-23 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -2.44%E -0.985%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.37%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 14:55
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -2.44%E -0.985%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.37%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 14:54
Bally Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -2.44%E -0.985%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.37%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 14:54
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.80%E -1.98%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.37%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 18:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.37%E -3.44%K -9.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-23 00:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 07:44
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.97%E -3.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-23 00:03
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.66%E -0.662%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.19%E -4.70%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-23 00:03
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.86%EV -11.49%E -5.11%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.14%EV -13.25%E -9.27%K -30.82%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 20:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-23 00:05
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-23 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-23 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-23 00:05
ProphetX◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-23 00:05
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-03-23 00:05
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-03-23 00:05
BetOpenly◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%1.3%2026-03-22 23:50
Novig◎2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%1.4%2026-03-23 00:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-03-22 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-03-22 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-03-22 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-03-22 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.49%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.67%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.84%4.3%2026-03-23 00:04
1xBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.54%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.14%4.7%2026-03-22 23:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.30%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%4.7%2026-03-22 23:50
Coolbet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%4.9%2026-03-22 21:09
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.37%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%5.0%2026-03-22 14:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.50%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%5.3%2026-03-22 14:55
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.50%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%5.3%2026-03-22 14:54
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.50%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%5.3%2026-03-22 14:55
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%5.8%2026-03-23 00:04
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%6.3%2026-03-22 14:54
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%6.7%2026-03-22 09:59
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.23%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%7.6%2026-03-22 14:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.43%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%8.8%2026-03-23 00:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.78%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.10%9.0%2026-03-22 23:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%9.3%2026-03-22 17:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%10.1%2026-03-23 00:03
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%11.3%2026-03-22 23:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.53%13.3%2026-03-23 00:04