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Buffalo Sabres v Washington Capitals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Sabres (Local)
Prediction 65.19%1.53fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.73%65.24%65.12%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.461.471.5074.07%68.27%68.03%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Capitals (Visit)
Prediction 34.81%2.87fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%34.76%34.88%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.522.742.752.8039.68%36.51%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 65.19%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 34.81%. For Buffalo Sabres (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -2.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.03%EV -2.22%E -1.48%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.97%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.22%E -1.48%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.01%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -2.87%E -1.93%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -2.87%E -1.93%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -2.87%E -1.03%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -2.87%E -1.93%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -5.31%E -1.95%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.51%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -6.36%E -2.36%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.75%E -2.92%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -3.22%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 23:01 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -3.57%E -1.29%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -6.70%E -2.50%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -6.70%E -2.50%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.83%E -3.31%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%EV -4.83%E -3.31%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -4.96%E -1.82%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:57 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.01%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.48%E -3.78%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.01%E -2.22%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.13%E -4.26%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.13%E -4.26%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.13%E -4.26%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.53%E -0.902%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.13%E -4.26%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.27%E -1.55%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-12 23:03 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -12.00%E -8.89%K -34.28%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -12.27%E -4.87%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-12 22:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23% | 0.0% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.97% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 36.03% | 0.2% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.21% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.79% | 1.6% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10% | 1.8% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25% | 2.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64% | 3.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64% | 3.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64% | 3.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.49% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64% | 3.1% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.67% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.53% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.80% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.07% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.75% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67% | 5.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.67% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47% | 6.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49% | 8.4% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37% | 8.8% | 2026-03-12 22:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.11% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37% | 8.8% | 2026-03-12 23:01 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.73% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24% | 9.5% | 2026-03-12 23:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.75% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48% | 10.9% | 2026-03-12 23:02 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.86% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.54% | 13.2% | 2026-03-12 23:05 |