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Buffalo Sabres v Toronto Maple Leafs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Sabres (Local)
Prediction 67.59%1.48fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.43%67.76%67.44%70.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.411.421.4574.07%70.98%70.67%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)
Prediction 32.41%3.09fair odd
EV +3.39%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 3.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.74%32.24%32.56%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.962.953.1935.09%33.81%33.90%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 67.59%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 32.41%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.39%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -8.75%E -6.48%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV +3.39%E +1.06%K +1.55%G +0.052% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -8.75%E -6.48%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV +3.39%E +1.06%K +1.55%G +0.052% | 5.4% | 2026-03-14 23:03 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.469%E +0.151%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.469%E +0.151%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.70%E -3.33%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.15%E -0.378%K -0.562%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.01%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.99%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-14 23:06 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.70%E -3.33%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -3.10%E -1.04%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 23:03 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.72%E -4.87%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -1.99%E -1.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -1.99%E -1.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 23:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 23:06 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 23:07 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 23:11 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-14 23:06 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -6.72%E -4.87%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.67% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.33% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 72.63% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 27.37% | 36.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 72.63% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 27.37% | 36.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.19% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.47% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.19% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.47% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.85% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.58% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.35% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.35% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25% | 5.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.11% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.39% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48% | 7.0% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26% | 7.3% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 23:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44% | 8.7% | 2026-03-14 23:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30% | 9.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.59% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26% | 10.4% | 2026-03-14 23:13 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42% | 11.2% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 55.54% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.37% | 16.9% | 2026-03-14 23:15 |