L’École des cotes

Buffalo Sabres v Toronto Maple Leafs

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-14 23:20 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

34 opérateurs (11 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Prévision 67.59%1.48cote équitable
EV -1.99%
Avantage -1.37%
Kelly -4.43%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.43%67.76%67.44%70.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.351.411.421.4574.07%70.98%70.67%68.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.41%3.09cote équitable
EV +3.39%
Avantage +1.06%
Kelly +1.55%
Croissance +0.052%

avec la cote maximale 3.19

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.74%32.24%32.56%33.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.852.962.953.1935.09%33.81%33.90%31.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

19 opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.

Cotes des opérateurs (34 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -8.75%E -6.48%K -25.01%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV +3.39%E +1.06%K +1.55%G +0.052%5.4%2026-03-14 23:04
Betsson1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -8.75%E -6.48%K -25.01%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV +3.39%E +1.06%K +1.55%G +0.052%5.4%2026-03-14 23:03
TAB1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.469%E +0.151%K +0.223%G +0.001%5.8%2026-03-14 23:05
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.08%E -5.94%K -22.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.469%E +0.151%K +0.223%G +0.001%5.8%2026-03-14 23:15
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.70%E -3.33%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.15%E -0.378%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 23:14
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 68.01%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.99%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.724%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 23:06
Paddy Power1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 23:15
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.70%E -3.33%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 23:15
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.77%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 23:14
MyBookie.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -3.10%E -1.04%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 23:03
Caesars1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 23:14
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 23:15
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.72%E -4.87%K -17.70%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -4.07%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 23:15
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 23:14
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 23:15
Fliff1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 23:15
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 23:08
Bally Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 23:15
LowVig.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -1.99%E -1.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 23:08
BetOnline.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.74%EV -1.99%E -1.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.26%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 23:08
BetUS1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 23:06
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 23:15
GTbets1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.35%E -2.34%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 23:07
Fanatics1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 23:14
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 23:11
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 23:15
theScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.37%E -3.84%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 23:15
BetAnything1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 23:15
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.67%E -1.85%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-14 23:06
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 23:14
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.02%E -2.83%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 23:15
Hard Rock Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -6.72%E -4.87%K -17.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 23:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (8)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-03-14 23:15
Polymarket1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-03-14 23:14
ProphetX1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-03-14 23:14
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%3.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Novig1.41I 70.92%NM 68.67%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.33%3.3%2026-03-14 23:15
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%8.7%2026-03-14 23:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 72.63%2.68I 37.31%NM 27.37%36.3%2026-03-14 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 72.63%2.68I 37.31%NM 27.37%36.3%2026-03-14 23:15

Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (19)

Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.

OpérateurOption 1Option 2Option 3Marge ▲Mise à jour
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.19%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.47%2.9%2026-03-14 23:15
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 57.19%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.47%2.9%2026-03-14 23:15
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.58%3.5%2026-03-14 23:15
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.35%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%5.0%2026-03-14 23:15
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 57.35%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.25%5.0%2026-03-14 23:15
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04%6.1%2026-03-14 23:15
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 57.39%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%6.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%7.0%2026-03-14 23:15
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%7.3%2026-03-14 23:15
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%7.6%2026-03-14 23:15
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%8.4%2026-03-14 23:14
Codere (IT)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%8.7%2026-03-14 23:01
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%9.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%9.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%9.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%10.2%2026-03-14 23:05
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.59%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%10.4%2026-03-14 23:13
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%11.2%2026-03-14 23:15
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 55.54%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.37%16.9%2026-03-14 23:15