Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach v MT Melsungen

2026-09-05 18:00 UTC — Handball-Bundesliga

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

55%

34%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 54.52%1.83fair odd

EV -5.67%

Edge -3.28%

Kelly -7.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.65%54.52%54.56%55.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.671.671.7362.50%60.00%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 33.78%2.96fair odd

EV -3.73%

Edge -1.31%

Kelly -2.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.23%33.83%33.74%35.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.552.702.702.8539.22%37.10%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.70%8.55fair odd

EV +4.12%

Edge +0.463%

Kelly +0.521%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 8.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.31%11.65%11.70%12.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.207.777.758.9013.89%12.87%12.90%11.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 54.52%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 33.78%; Draw: 11.70%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.55. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.90, producing a positive expected value of +4.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.28%EV -7.85%E -4.65%K -11.38%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 35.42%EV -12.52%E -4.83%K -7.87%G +0.000%	8.90I 11.24%NM 10.31%EV +4.12%E +0.463%K +0.521%G +0.021%	9.0%	2026-09-03 13:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 54.92%EV -8.40%E -5.00%K -12.35%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -7.11%E -2.59%K -4.06%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -6.41%E -0.801%K -0.916%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-03 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.07%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.35%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.44%EV -7.11%E -2.59%K -4.06%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.41%E -0.801%K -0.916%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-09-03 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.49%E -5.72%K -14.38%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -8.80%E -3.26%K -5.18%G +0.000%	7.80I 12.82%NM 11.64%EV -8.75%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-09-03 13:25
Coolbet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.65%EV -5.67%E -3.28%K -7.77%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.38%EV -8.80%E -3.26%K -5.18%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -9.34%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-09-03 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 54.41%EV -11.13%E -6.83%K -17.66%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 33.85%EV -11.50%E -4.39%K -7.10%G +0.000%	7.55I 13.25%NM 11.75%EV -11.68%E -1.55%K -1.78%G +0.000%	12.8%	2026-09-03 13:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 54.65%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.35%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.19%EV -7.11%E -2.59%K -4.06%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -12.26%E -1.63%K -1.89%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-09-03 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 54.11%EV -12.76%E -7.98%K -21.27%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 33.95%EV -13.87%E -5.44%K -8.95%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 11.94%EV -15.19%E -2.09%K -2.43%G +0.000%	15.5%	2026-09-03 13:09
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -8.95%E -5.36%K -13.35%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%	7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -15.77%E -2.19%K -2.54%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-09-03 13:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.