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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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VfL Gummersbach v MT Melsungen

开赛时间： 2026-09-05 18:00 UTC

最终结果： VfL Gummersbach 31–31 MT Melsungen

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

23 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

VfL Gummersbach (主队)

预测 56.14%1.78公平赔率
EV -1.76%
优势 -1.01%
Kelly -2.35%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.75

博彩公司预测分布
51.91%56.30%56.12%57.39%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.561.671.641.7564.10%59.99%60.98%57.14%最小值均值中位数最大值

MT Melsungen (客队)

预测 32.48%3.08公平赔率
EV -4.18%
优势 -1.42%
Kelly -2.15%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.95

博彩公司预测分布
31.13%32.45%32.48%36.32%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.432.702.752.9541.15%37.10%36.36%33.90%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 11.38%8.78公平赔率
EV +2.45%
优势 +0.272%
Kelly +0.307%
增长率 +0.008%

假设最高赔率为 9.00

博彩公司预测分布
10.19%11.25%11.40%12.15%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
7.258.138.259.0013.79%12.30%12.12%11.11%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：VfL Gummersbach (主队)：56.14%；MT Melsungen (客队)：32.48%；平局：11.38%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为8.78。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为9.00，对应+2.45%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (23 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队平局 ▼利润率更新时间
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.59%EV -9.06%E -5.59%K -14.61%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.22%EV -10.36%E -3.75%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV +2.45%E +0.272%K +0.307%G +0.008%9.1%2026-09-04 13:34
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.50%E -5.21%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.72%EV -8.41%E -2.98%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 10.67%EV -1.53%E -0.177%K -0.200%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:45
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -8.50%E -5.21%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.72%EV -8.41%E -2.98%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 10.67%EV -1.53%E -0.177%K -0.200%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:45
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:54
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -1.76%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -17.18%E -6.74%K -11.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -3.24%E -0.381%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -7.43%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.24%EV -6.09%E -0.738%K -0.839%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -7.37%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -8.93%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 13:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.17%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%EV -7.43%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.51%EV -8.93%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.39%EV -10.18%E -6.36%K -16.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -4.18%E -1.42%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -8.93%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 11:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -9.06%E -5.59%K -14.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.06%E -3.23%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -8.93%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.66%EV -10.74%E -6.76%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 11.57%EV -12.92%E -1.69%K -1.94%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 13:49
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -9.06%E -5.59%K -14.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -14.62%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 13:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.62%E -5.98%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.68%E -3.88%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.62%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.62%E -5.98%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.68%E -3.88%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.62%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.62%E -5.98%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.68%E -3.88%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.62%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 13:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.91%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.32%EV -21.07%E -8.67%K -14.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.77%EV -14.62%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-04 09:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.09%EV -12.43%E -7.97%K -22.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.05%EV -15.55%E -5.98%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.85%EV -17.47%E -2.41%K -2.80%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-04 13:45
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (1)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 55.50%2.64I 37.88%NM 32.80%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.70%15.5%2026-09-04 13:45