Language:English
HC Erlangen v VfL Gummersbach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
HC Erlangen (Local)
Prediction 21.32%4.69fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.45%21.29%21.32%22.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.184.104.5025.64%23.91%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Gummersbach (Visit)
Prediction 69.86%1.43fair odd
EV -6.39%
Edge -4.77%
Kelly -18.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.19%69.82%69.83%70.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.321.311.3478.13%75.94%76.34%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.82%11.33fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.294%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.32%8.90%8.85%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.0710.0011.0011.11%9.93%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HC Erlangen (Local): 21.32%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 69.86%; Draw: 8.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 11.00, with an expected value of -2.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -4.08%E -0.907%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.78%E -5.90%K -24.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 14:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -4.08%E -0.907%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -7.35%E -0.700%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-10 13:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.09%EV -7.28%E -1.67%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.57%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.34%EV -2.94%E -0.268%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -7.70%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.92%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 13:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -7.70%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.59%E -2.29%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 14:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -7.70%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.59%E -2.29%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -7.70%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.59%E -2.29%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.34%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.08%EV -7.78%E -5.90%K -24.32%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -2.94%E -0.268%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -9.41%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.47%EV -7.78%E -5.90%K -24.32%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.95%EV -9.56%E -0.933%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.48%E -2.49%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.48%E -6.47%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -2.94%E -0.268%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.48%E -2.49%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.48%E -6.47%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -2.94%E -0.268%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.48%E -2.49%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.48%E -6.47%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -2.94%E -0.268%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.37%EV -12.61%E -3.07%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.45%EV -6.39%E -4.77%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.74%E -3.68%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.73%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.74%E -3.68%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.73%EV -9.18%E -7.06%K -30.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -11.77%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.21%EV -15.80%E -4.00%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.55%EV -10.58%E -8.26%K -37.78%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -16.18%E -1.70%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -16.87%E -4.33%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.19%EV -9.88%E -7.66%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -16.18%E -1.70%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.52% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.26% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.22% | 15.4% | 2026-05-10 13:54 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.06% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.94% | 6.5% | 2026-05-10 14:04 |