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Welsh Fire v Southern Brave
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Welsh Fire (Local)
Prediction 54.20%1.85fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.99%54.23%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.731.731.8059.52%57.83%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Southern Brave (Visit)
Prediction 45.80%2.18fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.927%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%46.01%45.77%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.102.1451.28%48.05%47.62%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Welsh Fire (Local): 54.20%; Southern Brave (Visit): 45.80%. For Southern Brave (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.44%E -1.36%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.69%E -5.48%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.53%E -1.98%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.65%E -2.74%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 02:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -4.07%E -2.30%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -10.69%E -5.48%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-03 11:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 17:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 17:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.70%E -3.27%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -5.70%E -3.27%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.65%EV -8.85%E -4.45%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-03 17:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 16:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 17:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-03 17:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -8.85%E -4.45%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-03 17:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 17:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 17:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 17:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-03 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.40%E -4.20%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.86%E -4.63%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-03 17:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -8.41%E -4.97%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -4.73%E -2.27%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-03 17:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.95%E -5.33%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 17:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 0.1% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32% | 2.2% | 2026-08-03 17:25 |
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