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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Welsh Fire v Southern Brave

开赛时间： 2026-08-03 17:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

35 家博彩公司 (11 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Welsh Fire (主队)

预测 54.20%1.85公平赔率
EV -2.44%
优势 -1.36%
Kelly -3.06%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.80

博彩公司预测分布
52.00%53.99%54.23%55.58%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.681.731.731.8059.52%57.83%57.80%55.56%最小值均值中位数最大值

Southern Brave (客队)

预测 45.80%2.18公平赔率
EV -1.98%
优势 -0.927%
Kelly -1.74%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.14

博彩公司预测分布
44.42%46.01%45.77%48.00%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.952.082.102.1451.28%48.05%47.62%46.73%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Welsh Fire (主队)：54.20%；Southern Brave (客队)：45.80%。 对于“Southern Brave (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.18。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.14，期望值为-1.98%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (35 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队利润率更新时间
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.44%E -1.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.69%E -5.48%K -11.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 17:04
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.53%E -1.98%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.65%E -2.74%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-03 02:50
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -4.07%E -2.30%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -10.69%E -5.48%K -11.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 11:44
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 17:25
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 17:24
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.15%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.70%E -3.27%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 17:25
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -5.70%E -3.27%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.65%EV -8.85%E -4.45%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-03 17:24
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:10
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:15
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 16:59
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 16:59
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 17:25
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 17:23
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.11%E -2.98%K -5.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 17:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -6.24%E -3.61%K -8.55%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -8.85%E -4.45%K -8.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-03 17:04
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 17:20
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 17:19
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 17:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -2.90%E -1.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 17:15
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.78%E -3.94%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.98%E -0.927%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 17:25
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.32%E -4.28%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.40%E -4.20%K -8.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-03 17:15
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.86%E -4.63%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 17:14
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -8.41%E -4.97%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -4.73%E -2.27%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-03 17:20
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -8.95%E -5.33%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.82%E -1.82%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 17:15
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-08-03 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-08-03 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-08-03 17:25
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-08-03 17:25
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%2.2%2026-08-03 17:25