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Southern Brave v Birmingham Phoenix
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Southern Brave (Local)
Prediction 51.65%1.94fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.706%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.16%51.48%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.821.831.9159.88%54.83%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Birmingham Phoenix (Visit)
Prediction 48.35%2.07fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.731%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%47.84%48.52%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.961.952.1054.64%51.14%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Brave (Local): 51.65%; Birmingham Phoenix (Visit): 48.35%. For Birmingham Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -13.74%E -8.23%K -20.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +1.53%E +0.731%K +1.40%G +0.021% | 7.5% | 2026-07-30 15:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -11.68%E -6.83%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -2.33%E -1.16%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-30 16:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.30%E -1.65%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-30 17:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.30%E -1.65%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.30%E -1.65%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.30%E -1.65%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.30%E -1.65%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 17:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.27%E -2.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-30 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.27%E -2.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-30 17:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.27%E -2.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-30 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -8.58%E -4.85%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -4.27%E -2.16%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 17:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.75%E -2.41%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-30 17:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.75%E -2.41%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-30 17:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.75%E -2.41%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-30 17:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.75%E -2.41%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-30 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.93%E -2.11%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.23%E -2.67%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-30 17:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.41%E -1.83%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-30 17:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.72%E -2.93%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-30 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.20%E -3.20%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.45%E -2.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.20%E -3.20%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -8.58%E -4.85%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -6.20%E -3.20%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.68%E -3.46%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 17:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.35%E -0.706%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.35%E -0.706%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.35%E -0.706%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -6.00%E -3.29%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.03%E -3.91%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -8.58%E -4.85%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -7.65%E -4.01%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-30 17:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -5.48%E -2.99%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -11.52%E -6.29%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-30 17:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 52.00% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 48.00% | 0.2% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 0.4% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.7% | 2026-07-30 17:25 |
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