Language:English
Manchester Super Giants v Welsh Fire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manchester Super Giants (Local)
Prediction 54.44%1.84fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.960%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.11%54.55%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.731.731.8759.52%57.92%57.80%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Welsh Fire (Visit)
Prediction 45.56%2.19fair odd
EV +0.240%
Edge +0.109%
Kelly +0.200%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.30%45.89%45.45%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.092.102.2053.48%47.82%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester Super Giants (Local): 54.44%; Welsh Fire (Visit): 45.56%. For Manchester Super Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +1.80%E +0.960%K +2.06%G +0.037% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -14.80%E -7.91%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 11:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.65%E -2.06%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.59%E -3.22%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -2.95%E -1.38%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.28%E -3.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.22%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -5.28%E -3.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -9.78%E -4.94%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 13:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.99%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%EV -7.51%E -3.70%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 13:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -10.24%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-05 13:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 13:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 13:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.04%E -0.948%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -8.00%E -4.74%K -11.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-05 13:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 13:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69% | 2.3% | 2026-08-05 13:55 |