默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Manchester Super Giants v Welsh Fire

开赛时间： 2026-08-05 14:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

35 家博彩公司 (12 家纳入分析 )

54%

46%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Manchester Super Giants (主队)

预测 54.44%1.84公平赔率

EV +1.80%

优势 +0.960%

Kelly +2.06%

增长率 +0.037%

假设最高赔率为 1.87

博彩公司预测分布

50.00%54.11%54.55%56.70%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.681.731.731.8759.52%57.92%57.80%53.48%最小值均值中位数最大值

Welsh Fire (客队)

预测 45.56%2.19公平赔率

EV +0.240%

优势 +0.109%

Kelly +0.200%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.20

博彩公司预测分布

43.30%45.89%45.45%50.00%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.872.092.102.2053.48%47.82%47.62%45.45%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Manchester Super Giants (主队)：54.44%；Welsh Fire (客队)：45.56%。对于“Manchester Super Giants (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为1.84。当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为1.87，对应+1.80%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (35 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
DraftKings🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +1.80%E +0.960%K +2.06%G +0.037%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -14.80%E -7.91%K -17.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-05 11:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.65%E -2.06%K -4.74%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.59%E -3.22%K -6.28%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -2.95%E -1.38%K -2.61%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-05 13:50
Betsson🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 13:50
NordicBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 13:40
Betway🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-05 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.28%E -3.04%K -7.14%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.22%K -6.28%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-05 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -5.28%E -3.04%K -7.14%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -9.78%E -4.94%K -9.98%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-05 13:34
888sport🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
betfred_uk🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:34
William Hill🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
Coral🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:35
BoyleSports🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:34
Sky Bet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
SportsBet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.99%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%EV -7.51%E -3.70%K -7.29%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 13:55
Bet Victor🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 13:53
betano_uk🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 13:55
BetUS🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV -10.24%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-05 13:40
TABtouch🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -3.40%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 13:29
Bet Right🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-05 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-05 13:30
Neds🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-05 13:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.04%E -0.948%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:50
TAB🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.66%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-05 13:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -8.00%E -4.74%K -11.60%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-08-05 13:50
Unibet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:55
Casumo🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:54
Grosvenor🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +0.240%E +0.109%K +0.200%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 13:54

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-05 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-05 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-05 13:55
Matchbook◎	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-08-05 13:55
Smarkets◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%	2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%	2.3%	2026-08-05 13:55

Manchester Super Giants v Welsh Fire

胜负盘

Manchester Super Giants (主队)

Welsh Fire (客队)

博彩公司赔率 (35 家博彩公司)

博彩交易所 ? (5)

博彩交易所 (5)