Language:English
Australia v Bangladesh
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Australia (Local)
Prediction 91.20%1.10fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -4.95%
Kelly -128.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.03%91.06%91.39%93.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0499.01%97.60%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bangladesh (Visit)
Prediction 4.56%21.93fair odd
EV +32.27%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.372%
assuming max odds 29.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.35%4.60%4.59%5.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0023.6626.0029.006.67%4.23%3.85%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 4.24%23.59fair odd
EV +69.53%
Edge +1.74%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +1.24%
assuming max odds 40.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.41%4.35%4.02%5.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0026.0926.0040.006.67%3.83%3.85%2.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Australia (Local): 91.20%; Bangladesh (Visit): 4.56%; Draw: 4.24%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.59. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 40.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +69.53%.
2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.73%EV -6.06%E -5.89%K -202.10%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.86%EV +14.02%E +0.561%K +0.584%G +0.082% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.41%EV +69.53%E +1.74%K +1.78%G +1.24% | 3.6% | 2026-08-13 00:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.51%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV -8.78%E -0.439%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +44.10%E +1.30%K +1.34%G +0.589% | 6.0% | 2026-08-13 00:23 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.51%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.35%EV +32.27%E +1.11%K +1.15%G +0.372% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.14%EV +31.39%E +1.01%K +1.05%G +0.328% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.51%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.35%EV +32.27%E +1.11%K +1.15%G +0.372% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.14%EV +31.39%E +1.01%K +1.05%G +0.328% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.51%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.35%EV +32.27%E +1.11%K +1.15%G +0.372% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.14%EV +31.39%E +1.01%K +1.05%G +0.328% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.15%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.73%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.13%EV +31.39%E +1.01%K +1.05%G +0.328% | 3.2% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.15%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.73%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.13%EV +31.39%E +1.01%K +1.05%G +0.328% | 3.2% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.50%EV -5.15%E -4.95%K -128.78%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.18%EV +4.90%E +0.213%K +0.223%G +0.011% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.32%EV +22.91%E +0.790%K +0.818%G +0.187% | 3.9% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.06%E -5.89%K -202.10%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.67%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 4.8% | 2026-08-13 00:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 5.7% | 2026-08-12 12:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -7.89%E -7.81%K -788.72%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 6.7% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -7.89%E -7.81%K -788.72%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +18.58%E +0.715%K +0.743%G +0.138% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 6.7% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.00%EV -7.89%E -7.81%K -788.72%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -4.22%E -0.201%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 7.6% | 2026-08-13 00:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.00%EV -7.89%E -7.81%K -788.72%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -4.22%E -0.201%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +10.20%E +0.392%K +0.408%G +0.042% | 7.6% | 2026-08-13 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -7.89%E -7.81%K -788.72%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%EV +14.02%E +0.561%K +0.584%G +0.082% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%EV +5.96%E +0.238%K +0.248%G +0.015% | 7.0% | 2026-08-12 12:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.06%E -5.89%K -202.10%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.22%E -0.201%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -11.00%E -0.524%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -6.06%E -5.89%K -202.10%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -4.22%E -0.201%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -11.00%E -0.524%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.12%EV -6.06%E -5.89%K -202.10%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -22.46%E -1.32%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -11.00%E -0.524%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 89.39%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 18.25I 5.48%NM 5.00%EV -16.76%E -0.919%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 16.25I 6.15%NM 5.61%EV -31.13%E -1.92%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-13 00:22 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 88.03%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -31.59%E -2.11%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -36.43%E -2.43%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 88.03%EV -6.98%E -6.84%K -348.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -31.59%E -2.11%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.99%EV -36.43%E -2.43%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.11% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 1.2% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.11% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 1.2% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.11% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 1.2% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.48% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.64% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.89% | 1.9% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 00:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73% | 6.2% | 2026-08-13 00:29 |