The School of Odds
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Lancashire v Durham

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lancashire (Local)

Prediction 60.88%1.64fair odd
EV +4.11%
Edge +2.40%
Kelly +5.79%
Growth +0.238%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.64%59.90%60.82%62.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.541.7166.67%64.48%64.94%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Durham (Visit)

Prediction 39.12%2.56fair odd
EV -0.643%
Edge -0.253%
Kelly -0.417%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.13%40.10%39.18%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.402.402.5448.54%41.59%41.67%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV +4.11%E +2.40%K +5.79%G +0.238%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -19.42%E -9.43%K -18.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 23:10
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +3.50%E +2.06%K +5.00%G +0.175%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -15.90%E -7.39%K -13.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 11:44
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 55.38%EV +3.50%E +2.06%K +5.00%G +0.175%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.62%EV -17.46%E -8.28%K -15.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 07:10
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.41%E -2.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.90%E -2.90%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 14:09
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 14:24
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 14:25
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
Casumo1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
LiveScore Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:14
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.63%E -3.63%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:10
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:10
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:10
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:09
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:24
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 14:24
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:23
betano_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.85%E -4.48%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 14:23
Unibet (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 14:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 14:24
Neds1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 14:24
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -7.46%E -4.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -7.68%E -3.26%K -5.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 14:10
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -8.68%E -5.78%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -0.643%E -0.253%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 14:24
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.68%E -5.78%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.21%E -0.883%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 14:24
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.68%E -5.78%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.16%E -1.70%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-07-12 14:25
Matchbook1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-07-12 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-07-12 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-07-12 14:25
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30%1.3%2026-07-12 14:25