Language:English
Birmingham Bears v Sussex
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Birmingham Bears (Local)
Prediction 55.39%1.81fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -5.71%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.64%55.40%55.70%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.681.671.7360.61%59.41%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sussex (Visit)
Prediction 44.61%2.24fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.60%44.30%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.142.152.2049.02%46.75%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Bears (Local): 55.39%; Sussex (Visit): 44.61%. For Sussex (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 23:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 23:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-28 23:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -5.28%E -3.09%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -8.11%E -3.94%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 23:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -4.99%E -2.34%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -6.39%E -3.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -9.00%E -4.41%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 05:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.87%E -0.848%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.87%E -0.848%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 07:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.87%E -0.848%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.87%E -0.848%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.87%E -0.848%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 08:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 07:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-01 17:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -8.05%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -2.76%E -1.26%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.60%E -5.21%K -13.23%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 0.3% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12% | 6.0% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |