Language:English
Phoenix Mercury v Portland Fire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 64.22%1.56fair odd
EV +0.191%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.341%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.72%64.09%64.46%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5669.93%66.67%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Portland Fire (Visit)
Prediction 35.78%2.80fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +0.687%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%35.91%35.54%40.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.582.602.8546.51%38.69%38.46%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 64.22%; Portland Fire (Visit): 35.78%. For Portland Fire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV +1.96%E +0.687%K +1.06%G +0.021% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -5.59%E -3.80%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV +0.171%E +0.061%K +0.095%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.52%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 22:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.52%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 22:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.52%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 22:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.52%E -5.22%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -8.16%E -5.71%K -18.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -1.62%E -0.588%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.98%E -0.721%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-16 22:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.59%E -3.80%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.69%E -0.990%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-16 22:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.41%E -1.26%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.41%E -1.26%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.31%E -2.89%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.41%E -1.26%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.41%E -1.26%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 16:07 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -4.48%E -1.68%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 22:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 16:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.23%E -4.27%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 22:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.23%E -4.27%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.20%E -1.96%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.38%E -1.56%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.02%E -2.00%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.59%E -3.80%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.98%E -2.69%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%EV -1.09%E -0.710%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -8.42%E -3.29%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 22:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-16 22:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.77%E -3.44%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -1.74%E -1.13%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -9.85%E -3.91%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -3.02%E -2.00%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 22:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.66%E -2.44%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 22:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.56%E -4.22%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-16 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV +0.191%E +0.122%K +0.341%G +0.001% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -11.28%E -4.55%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.452%E -0.291%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.452%E -0.291%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -12.35%E -5.04%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -1.09%E -0.710%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -14.14%E -5.89%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -4.95%E -3.34%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -15.93%E -6.78%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.72%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -23.08%E -10.74%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-08-16 22:58 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.72%EV -6.87%E -4.74%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.28%EV -23.08%E -10.74%K -20.07%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-08-16 22:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 20:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.19% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81% | 1.2% | 2026-08-16 23:00 |