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Phoenix Mercury v Minnesota Lynx
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 64.38%1.55fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -6.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%64.46%64.44%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.461.481.5075.19%68.42%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Minnesota Lynx (Visit)
Prediction 35.62%2.81fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%35.54%35.56%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.702.9038.46%36.62%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 64.38%; Minnesota Lynx (Visit): 35.62%. For Minnesota Lynx (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.29%E +1.13%K +1.73%G +0.057% | 4.9% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV +2.57%E +0.894%K +1.37%G +0.035% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -5.36%E -3.64%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -1.70%E -0.616%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-13 01:46 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.06%E -0.748%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-13 01:58 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.06%E -0.748%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.06%E -0.748%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.06%E -0.748%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.06%E -0.748%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -2.41%E -0.880%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -2.41%E -0.880%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -7.29%E -5.06%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.53%EV -2.77%E -1.01%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.36%E -3.64%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -3.12%E -1.15%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.07%E -2.73%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.07%E -2.73%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.07%E -2.73%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.36%E -3.64%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.36%E -3.64%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.00%EV -14.37%E -10.80%K -43.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.00%EV -3.84%E -1.42%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.62%E -2.12%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.62%E -2.12%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.64%E -4.58%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.62%E -2.12%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -4.07%E -2.73%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -5.97%E -2.26%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -6.33%E -2.41%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-13 01:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.29%E -5.06%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.69%E -2.55%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.42%E -2.28%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.71%E -3.18%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-13 01:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.64%E -4.58%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -8.57%E -6.04%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.40%E -2.85%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.45% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55% | 1.2% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02% | 1.3% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87% | 1.7% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02% | 2.8% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 41.32% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 58.68% | 70.4% | 2026-05-13 02:00 |