The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Phoenix Mercury v Golden State Valkyries

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 02:11 UTC

Final: Phoenix Mercury 91–89 Golden State Valkyries

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Prediction 41.65%2.40fair odd
EV -0.032%
Edge -0.013%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.10%41.63%41.70%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4046.51%43.46%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Valkyries (Visit)

Prediction 58.35%1.71fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.37%58.30%59.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.6764.52%61.53%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 41.65%; Golden State Valkyries (Visit): 58.35%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.401. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.400, with an expected value of -0.032%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-30 01:49
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-30 01:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-30 01:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-30 01:29
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-30 01:30
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-30 02:00
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -0.032%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-30 01:59
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.10%EV -0.448%E -0.187%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -6.65%E -4.15%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 01:35
BetAnything🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -1.28%E -0.541%K -0.935%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -4.31%E -2.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-30 01:30
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -1.70%E -0.719%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -4.90%E -3.00%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-30 01:55
GTbets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.11%E -0.900%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 01:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.11%E -0.900%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 01:39
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.11%E -0.900%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 01:53
MyBookie.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 01:49
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:55
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:50
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 00:54
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-30 01:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.31%E -2.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-30 01:30
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.90%E -3.00%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 01:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-30 00:55
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-30 00:54
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-30 00:54
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.06%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-30 02:00
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.20%E -1.82%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.23%E -4.55%K -12.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-30 01:35
Bet Right🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -5.03%E -2.21%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-30 02:00
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.86%E -2.59%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 01:50
DraftKings🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.86%E -2.59%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 00:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 00:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 01:55
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 01:55
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.90%E -3.00%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 02:00
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 01:58
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 00:55
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.65%E -4.15%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-30 01:38
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.28%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.65%E -4.15%K -11.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-30 01:40
Caesars🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -7.53%E -3.39%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 00:58
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 00:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 00:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 00:50
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-30 00:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -9.56%E -6.17%K -17.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-30 00:50
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -6.65%E -4.15%K -11.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-30 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-07-30 00:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-30 02:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-30 02:00
ProphetX◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-30 01:30
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%1.2%2026-07-30 02:00
Novig◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%1.5%2026-07-30 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-07-30 02:00
Polymarket◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-07-30 02:00

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