Phoenix Mercury v Golden State Valkyries

2026-07-30 02:00 UTC — WNBA

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

36%

64%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Prediction 35.70%2.80fair odd

EV +6.39%

Edge +2.14%

Kelly +3.23%

Growth +0.206%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.27%35.70%35.70%36.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.622.742.702.9838%37%37%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Golden State Valkyries (Visit)

Prediction 64.30%1.56fair odd

EV -3.55%

Edge -2.37%

Kelly -7.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.68%64.30%64.30%67.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.421.451.451.5070%69%69%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV +6.39%E +2.14%K +3.23%G +0.206%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -8.70%E -6.12%K -20.71%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-23 04:20
Betr (AU)	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -0.036%E -0.013%K -0.020%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.41%E -5.15%K -16.84%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-23 04:39
FanDuel	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -2.89%E -1.06%K -1.68%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -5.48%E -3.73%K -11.66%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-23 04:04
SportsBet	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.27%EV -4.32%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.73%EV -6.12%E -4.19%K -13.31%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-23 04:04
DraftKings	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -6.10%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.55%E -2.37%K -7.10%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-23 04:40
Paddy Power	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.46%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.41%E -5.15%K -16.84%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-23 04:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%	5.1%	2026-07-23 06:49