The School of Odds

Minnesota Lynx v Phoenix Mercury

2026-07-14 01:10 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Minnesota Lynx (Local)

Prediction 82.61%1.21fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -19.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.51%82.45%82.77%86.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1790%87%87%85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 17.39%5.75fair odd
EV +21.70%
Edge +3.10%
Kelly +3.62%
Growth +0.785%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.69%17.55%17.23%20.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.505.445.507.0022%18%18%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -8.30%E -7.48%K -75.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +21.70%E +3.10%K +3.62%G +0.785%4.4%2026-07-12 02:39
Betr (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.033%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 04:54
Bet Right1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -0.033%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 04:54
SportsBet1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.65%E -5.88%K -51.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -0.033%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 04:59
FanDuel1.14I 87.72%NM 83.33%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -0.902%E -0.158%K -0.192%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 04:59
GTbets1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.17%E -3.59%K -26.05%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV -1.77%E -0.313%K -0.381%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-12 06:09
Fanatics1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -2.64%E -0.472%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 04:50
Caesars1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -2.64%E -0.472%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 05:36
DraftKings1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.17%E -3.59%K -26.05%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -3.51%E -0.632%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-12 04:49
Hard Rock Bet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.38%E -0.796%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 04:54
theScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.38%E -0.796%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 04:50
Coolbet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.38%E -0.796%K -0.973%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 05:40
Paddy Power1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.47%E -6.67%K -62.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.38%E -0.796%K -0.973%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 04:59
Unibet (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.17%E -3.59%K -26.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -6.12%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-12 04:53
NordicBet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.73%E -1.66%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 04:54
Betsson1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.73%E -1.66%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 04:54
888sport1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.34%E -2.86%K -19.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 02:34
888sport (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.34%E -2.86%K -19.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 02:34
Mr Green (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.34%E -2.86%K -19.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 02:35
MyBookie.ag1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.34%E -2.86%K -19.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 02:39
ReBet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.99%E -4.34%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 04:54
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.82%E -5.10%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -13.07%E -2.61%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-12 04:54
LeoVegas1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -4.17%E -3.59%K -26.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -21.76%E -4.84%K -6.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-12 04:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.71%1.8%2026-07-12 06:39
Polymarket1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%3.3%2026-07-12 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 46.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 53.67%84.5%2026-07-12 08:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 46.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 53.67%84.5%2026-07-12 08:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 46.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 53.67%84.5%2026-07-12 08:05
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +0.24%888sport 1.17 (85.7%) / 1xBet 7.00 (14.3%)Show all 3 combinations
Minnesota Lynx (Local)Phoenix Mercury (Visit)Margin
888sport 1.17 (85.7%)1xBet 7.00 (14.3%)+0.245%
888sport (SE) 1.17 (85.7%)1xBet 7.00 (14.3%)+0.245%
Mr Green (SE) 1.17 (85.7%)1xBet 7.00 (14.3%)+0.245%
MyBookie.ag 1.17 (85.7%)1xBet 7.00 (14.3%)+0.245%