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Minnesota Lynx v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Minnesota Lynx (Local)
Prediction 83.57%1.20fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -19.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.43%83.54%83.57%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.141.141.1691.74%87.85%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 16.43%6.09fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +0.428%
Kelly +0.510%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.46%16.43%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.735.806.2520.00%17.46%17.24%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Lynx (Local): 83.57%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 16.43%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +2.68%E +0.428%K +0.510%G +0.014% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| BetMGM | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +2.68%E +0.428%K +0.510%G +0.014% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.14%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.86%EV -0.609%E -0.101%K -0.121%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 01:05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.98%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 6.03I 16.58%NM 16.02%EV -0.938%E -0.156%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-14 01:08 |
| Bet Victor | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| betano_uk | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Fanatics | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Caesars | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-14 01:08 |
| BetUS | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| Neds | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -1.43%E -0.238%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| GTbets | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.20%EV -6.40%E -5.71%K -53.33%G +0.000% | 5.97I 16.75%NM 15.80%EV -1.92%E -0.322%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.78%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 5.94I 16.84%NM 16.22%EV -2.42%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-14 01:04 |
| Unibet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| TABtouch | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| BetRivers | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| ReBet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| betPARX | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Bally Bet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.72%E -0.813%K -0.983%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.54%E -0.963%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.54%E -0.963%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| Bet Right | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.54%E -0.963%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| theScore Bet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.54%E -0.963%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| BetAnything | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -6.36%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Bovada | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -3.89%E -3.38%K -25.95%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -8.00%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-14 01:08 |
| Fliff | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -3.06%E -2.64%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -8.82%E -1.59%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 01:06 |
| 888sport | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Coolbet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 00:58 |
| SportsBet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| Betway | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-14 01:09 |
| NordicBet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| Betsson | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.56%E -4.92%K -42.80%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-14 01:00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.40%E -5.71%K -53.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 00:59 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.46%EV -8.91%E -8.17%K -98.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -3.06%E -2.64%K -19.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -12.93%E -2.44%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 01:08 |
| Paddy Power | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.73%E -4.15%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -17.86%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.40%E -5.71%K -53.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -17.86%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Polymarket | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.71% | 1.8% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.71% | 1.8% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Novig | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.71% | 1.8% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| ProphetX | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.45% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.55% | 2.4% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67% | 3.4% | 2026-07-14 01:10 |