The School of Odds

Las Vegas Aces v Indiana Fever

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 23:06 UTC

Final: Las Vegas Aces 68–84 Indiana Fever

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Las Vegas Aces (Local)

Prediction 57.37%1.74fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%57.47%57.42%58.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.651.651.7065%61%60%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Indiana Fever (Visit)

Prediction 42.63%2.35fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.53%42.58%43.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.122.242.252.3047%45%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -2.47%E -1.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-05 22:59
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.04%E -1.80%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-05 22:58
BetAnything1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.04%E -1.80%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-05 23:00
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.04%E -1.80%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-05 23:00
GTbets1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-05 22:59
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-05 23:00
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-05 23:00
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-05 22:59
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-05 22:59
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -3.23%E -1.42%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 23:00
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 22:59
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 22:59
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 23:00
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 22:59
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 23:00
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 23:00
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 22:59
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 22:59
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.77%E -2.87%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 23:00
MyBookie.ag1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.77%E -2.87%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 22:59
ReBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.77%E -2.87%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.51%E -2.01%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 22:59
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.77%E -2.87%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 23:00
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 22:59
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 23:00
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 22:59
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.07%E -3.24%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 22:59
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.07%E -3.24%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 22:59
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.35%E -3.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.35%E -3.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 22:59
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
Bally Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 23:00
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 23:00
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.848%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 23:00
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 22:59
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 23:00
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -9.62%E -4.54%K -8.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 22:59
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%EV -11.08%E -7.15%K -20.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.21%E -2.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-05 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-07-05 23:00
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%1.0%2026-07-05 23:00
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-07-05 23:00
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-07-05 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-07-05 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-07-05 23:00
ProphetX1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%5.9%2026-07-05 23:00