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Indiana Fever v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Indiana Fever (Local)
Prediction 76.83%1.30fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -5.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%76.77%76.64%78.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2883.33%80.20%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 23.17%4.32fair odd
EV +0.800%
Edge +0.184%
Kelly +0.239%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.76%23.23%23.36%26.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.024.004.3528.57%24.86%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Fever (Local): 76.83%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 23.17%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.800%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -7.04%E -5.82%K -33.52%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV +0.800%E +0.184%K +0.239%G +0.002% | 5.6% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.60%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.40%EV +0.336%E +0.078%K +0.101%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.359%E -0.084%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.359%E -0.084%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.11%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.89%EV -2.44%E -0.581%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-24 23:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.50%E -4.47%K -23.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.68%E -0.637%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -3.83%E -0.924%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -3.83%E -0.924%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-24 23:27 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.99%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.27%E -5.14%K -28.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.81%E -6.51%K -39.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.31%E -1.83%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.10%EV -3.97%E -3.17%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.90%EV -7.77%E -1.95%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-24 23:28 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.47%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.73%E -3.82%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -9.63%E -2.47%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.20%E -2.54%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.95%E -3.14%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-24 23:18 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.36%EV -7.04%E -5.82%K -33.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -14.26%E -3.85%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-24 23:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -1.66%E -1.30%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -18.90%E -5.40%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 0.9% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50% | 1.3% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.90% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 23.10% | 1.6% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.51% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49% | 2.1% | 2026-06-24 23:30 |