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Indiana Fever v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Indiana Fever (Local)
Prediction 72.50%1.38fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -8.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%72.59%72.63%74.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.321.3478.74%76.10%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 27.50%3.64fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.073%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%27.41%27.37%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.453.8031.25%28.99%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Fever (Local): 72.50%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 27.50%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV +4.51%E +1.19%K +1.61%G +0.073% | 3.2% | 2026-06-22 23:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -6.48%E -5.02%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +1.76%E +0.475%K +0.651%G +0.011% | 4.5% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV +0.382%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 3.7% | 2026-06-22 21:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +0.382%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-06-22 23:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.93%E -6.24%K -29.36%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +0.382%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001% | 6.1% | 2026-06-22 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.168%E -0.046%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.168%E -0.046%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.993%E -0.276%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-22 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.01%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.99%EV -1.82%E -0.509%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-22 23:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -2.37%E -0.667%K -0.929%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-22 23:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.74%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-22 21:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.74%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-22 22:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.48%E -5.02%K -22.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.74%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-22 23:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.03%E -3.84%K -16.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-22 23:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.12%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-22 23:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -5.94%E -1.74%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-22 23:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-22 23:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-22 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.49%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -2.85%E -2.13%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.87%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-22 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.87%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-22 22:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.87%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 23:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.87%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.87%E -2.35%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-22 23:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-22 23:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-22 23:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.58%E -2.69%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-22 23:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-22 23:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.30%E -3.26%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.24%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-22 20:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.75%E -4.43%K -19.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-22 14:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -7.93%E -6.24%K -29.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -11.99%E -3.75%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-06-22 23:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-06-22 19:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-06-22 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.5% | 2026-06-22 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.5% | 2026-06-22 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.5% | 2026-06-22 23:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 2.8% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42% | 3.5% | 2026-06-23 00:00 |