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Michigan St Spartans v Louisville Cardinals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan St Spartans (Local)
Prediction 67.73%1.48fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.21%67.63%67.89%69.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.29%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Louisville Cardinals (Visit)
Prediction 32.27%3.10fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.521%
Kelly +0.763%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%32.37%32.11%34.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.912.883.1537.31%34.35%34.72%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan St Spartans (Local): 67.73%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 32.27%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.53%E -4.73%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +1.64%E +0.521%K +0.763%G +0.013% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 18:33 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +0.027%E +0.009%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 18:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.53%E -4.73%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +0.027%E +0.009%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 18:27 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -0.618%E -0.201%K -0.297%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.59%E -0.520%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.59%E -0.520%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%EV -3.14%E -2.20%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06%EV -2.23%E -0.737%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.82%E -2.69%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 18:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.20%E -1.07%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.82%E -2.69%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -3.84%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.81%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.81%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.46%E -1.86%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 18:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.14%E -2.20%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.43%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 18:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.82%E -2.69%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.43%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.21%E -5.26%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.43%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.21%E -5.26%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.43%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 18:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.04%E -2.82%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -5.85%E -4.21%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.86%EV -8.36%E -2.94%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -6.53%E -4.73%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -7.88%E -5.80%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -7.88%E -5.80%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -9.65%E -3.45%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.46%E -1.71%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.27%E -4.10%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -4.50%E -3.19%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -11.27%E -4.10%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 18:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.17%E -3.70%K -12.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.27%E -4.10%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 16:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -3.14%E -2.20%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.79%EV -13.53%E -5.05%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 18:44 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.42% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.58% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.42% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.58% | 1.5% | 2026-03-21 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 18:45 |