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Duke Blue Devils v Virginia Cavaliers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Duke Blue Devils (Local)
Prediction 81.15%1.23fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -13.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%81.14%81.21%82.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.181.2087.72%85.13%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)
Prediction 18.85%5.30fair odd
EV +3.68%
Edge +0.669%
Kelly +0.818%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.42%18.86%18.79%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.935.005.5022.22%20.29%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 81.15%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 18.85%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.87%E -5.06%K -36.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 16:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.87%E -5.06%K -36.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.87%E -5.06%K -36.67%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.98%E -0.380%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.50%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -1.98%E -0.380%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.45%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.55%EV -2.35%E -0.454%K -0.563%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.45%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.55%EV -2.35%E -0.454%K -0.563%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.06%E -4.32%K -29.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.49%E -6.57%K -53.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.68%EV -3.43%E -2.88%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.32%EV -6.31%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -5.87%E -5.06%K -36.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.52%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -10.46%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -10.46%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -10.46%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -11.40%E -2.43%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.43%E -2.88%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.43%E -2.88%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.43%E -2.88%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.43%E -2.88%K -18.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.24%E -3.60%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.62%E -2.18%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.17%E -3.37%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.48% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.52% | 1.8% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.97% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 17.03% | 2.1% | 2026-02-28 16:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 17:00 |