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Duke Blue Devils v TCU Horned Frogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Duke Blue Devils (Local)
Prediction 85.07%1.18fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -21.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.02%85.02%85.19%86.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1492.59%89.53%89.29%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TCU Horned Frogs (Visit)
Prediction 14.93%6.70fair odd
EV +8.25%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.109%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.17%14.98%14.81%17.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.276.107.2519.23%15.96%16.39%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Duke Blue Devils (Local): 85.07%; TCU Horned Frogs (Visit): 14.93%. For TCU Horned Frogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -6.42%E -5.84%K -64.24%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +8.25%E +1.14%K +1.32%G +0.109% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.22%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 7.07I 14.14%NM 13.78%EV +5.56%E +0.786%K +0.916%G +0.051% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 21:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.27%E -6.67%K -80.83%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.27%E -6.67%K -80.83%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +3.02%E +0.438%K +0.512%G +0.015% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14%EV +1.53%E +0.225%K +0.264%G +0.004% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 21:13 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:23 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:16 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 21:23 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.13%E -7.52%K -101.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.13%E -7.52%K -101.57%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.11%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.46I 15.48%NM 14.89%EV -3.55%E -0.549%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.11%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.46I 15.48%NM 14.89%EV -3.55%E -0.549%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -4.44%E -0.694%K -0.823%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV -5.94%E -0.942%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.87%E -3.43%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 21:22 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.57%E -5.02%K -50.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.42%E -5.84%K -64.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.42%E -5.84%K -64.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.42%E -5.84%K -64.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.42%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.72%E -4.22%K -39.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -6.42%E -5.84%K -64.24%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -3.02%E -2.65%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -22.36%E -4.30%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.55% | 8.02I 12.47%NM 12.45% | 0.2% | 2026-03-21 21:14 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.39% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.61% | 0.4% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.84% | 7.52I 13.30%NM 13.16% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.75% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 21:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.75% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 2.0% | 2026-03-21 21:25 |