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Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)
Prediction 59.03%1.69fair odd
EV +0.346%
Edge +0.203%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%59.03%59.12%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.611.611.7069.44%62.30%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Nuggets (Visit)
Prediction 40.97%2.44fair odd
EV +12.68%
Edge +4.61%
Kelly +7.24%
Growth +0.918%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%40.97%40.88%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.352.7546.51%42.50%42.55%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 59.03%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 40.97%. For Denver Nuggets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -15.00%E -10.42%K -34.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +12.68%E +4.61%K +7.24%G +0.918% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +2.43%E +0.973%K +1.62%G +0.039% | 4.1% | 2026-03-09 23:38 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +1.61%E +0.651%K +1.09%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +1.61%E +0.651%K +1.09%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +1.61%E +0.651%K +1.09%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV +1.61%E +0.651%K +1.09%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.435%E -0.179%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.75%EV -3.79%E -2.32%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.25%EV -0.845%E -0.349%K -0.595%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.97%E -3.08%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.66%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.97%E -3.08%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.66%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -1.66%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.92%E -5.08%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.66%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.97%E -3.08%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.48%E -1.04%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -9.10%E -5.91%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -2.48%E -1.04%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 23:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.69%E -6.33%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.48%E -1.04%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -2.89%E -1.22%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -2.89%E -1.22%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.79%E -2.32%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 23:37 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.97%E -3.08%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.97%E -3.08%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -9.69%E -6.33%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -3.71%E -1.58%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.12%E -1.76%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV +0.346%E +0.203%K +0.494%G +0.002% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-09 23:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.43%E -0.853%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -1.43%E -0.853%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.79%E -2.32%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.33%E -4.67%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.76%E -2.51%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 23:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -0.835%E -0.497%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.43%E -0.853%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.43%E -0.853%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.38%E -2.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.81%E -3.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -8.22%E -3.67%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.61%E -1.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.86%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.20%E -1.95%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.86%E -4.48%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -5.56%E -3.47%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -11.91%E -5.54%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 0.0% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 0.2% | 2026-03-09 23:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 0.3% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51% | 0.5% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01% | 0.9% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 0.9% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-03-09 23:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79% | 1.6% | 2026-03-09 23:40 |