The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New Orleans Pelicans v Denver Nuggets

Kickoff: 2026-11-15 00:11 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

69 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Orleans Pelicans (Local)

Prediction 17.55%5.70fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +0.886%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.97%17.73%17.42%22.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.805.425.506.0026.32%18.44%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Nuggets (Visit)

Prediction 82.45%1.21fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -15.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.55%82.27%82.58%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.151.151.1891.74%86.96%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Orleans Pelicans (Local): 17.55%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 82.45%. For New Orleans Pelicans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.70. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (69 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.31%E +0.886%K +1.06%G +0.056%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-14 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯5.87I 17.04%NM 16.50%EV +3.03%E +0.516%K +0.622%G +0.019%1.16I 86.21%NM 83.50%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-14 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-15 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-15 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-15 00:05
BetRivers🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-15 00:05
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-15 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-14 22:34
betPARX🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-15 00:05
Bally Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-14 22:34
Pinnacle🎯5.78I 17.30%NM 16.83%EV +1.45%E +0.251%K +0.304%G +0.004%1.17I 85.47%NM 83.17%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%2.8%2026-11-14 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV +1.10%E +0.191%K +0.231%G +0.003%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-14 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.925%E +0.161%K +0.195%G +0.002%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-15 00:05
ReBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-14 21:20
Everygame🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-14 17:57
Tipico (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-14 23:45
GTbets🎯5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-15 00:00
SportsBet🎯5.65I 17.70%NM 16.91%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.09%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-14 22:10
betano_uk🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%2.6%2026-11-14 23:48
Bet Victor🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%2.6%2026-11-14 23:48
Winamax (DE)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.28%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.72%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.3%2026-11-15 00:10
FanDuel🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-14 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-14 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-15 00:05
1xBet🎯5.56I 17.99%NM 17.38%EV -2.41%E -0.433%K -0.528%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.62%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-14 23:24
BetUS🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-14 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-15 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-14 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-14 23:20
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-14 23:30
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-15 00:09
picklebet_au🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-14 23:05
Bovada🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-15 00:10
BetAnything🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-14 20:05
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-14 20:40
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-14 21:20
PlayUp🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-14 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-14 20:39
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-15 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.66%E -6.84%K -63.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-15 00:05
MyBookie.ag🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-14 21:15
PMU (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -10.13%E -9.30%K -112.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-15 00:05
Fanatics🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-15 00:09
Fliff🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-15 00:10
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-14 18:19
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-15 00:10
Betsson🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-14 23:30
Neds🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-15 00:09
888sport🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 11:10
William Hill🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 11:09
Coolbet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-15 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-14 11:10
NetBet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-14 23:50
Caesars🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-15 00:10
Dabble (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-14 20:40
Casumo🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-14 21:55
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-15 00:10
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-15 00:10
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-14 22:30
NordicBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-15 00:10
LeoVegas🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -13.99%E -2.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-15 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.27%EV -18.38%E -3.95%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.73%EV -8.48%E -7.64%K -77.12%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-15 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -19.26%E -4.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.28%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-15 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.45%EV -33.30%E -8.76%K -11.89%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 77.55%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%17.2%2026-11-15 00:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎6.62I 15.11%NM 15.13%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.87%-0.1%2026-11-14 23:55
Polymarket◎6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%0.7%2026-11-15 00:00
Kalshi◎6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%0.7%2026-11-14 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%0.9%2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%0.9%2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%0.9%2026-11-14 22:10
ProphetX◎6.10I 16.39%NM 16.21%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.79%1.1%2026-11-14 23:45
Novig◎6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70%1.2%2026-11-15 00:10
Matchbook◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%1.6%2026-11-15 00:10
Smarkets◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%2.9%2026-11-15 00:00

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