默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

New Orleans Pelicans v Denver Nuggets

开赛时间： 2026-11-15 00:11 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

69 家博彩公司 (22 家纳入分析 )

18%

82%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

New Orleans Pelicans (主队)

预测 17.55%5.70公平赔率

EV +5.31%

优势 +0.886%

Kelly +1.06%

增长率 +0.056%

假设最高赔率为 6.00

博彩公司预测分布

15.97%17.73%17.42%22.45%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.805.425.506.0026.32%18.44%18.18%16.67%最小值均值中位数最大值

Denver Nuggets (客队)

预测 82.45%1.21公平赔率

EV -2.71%

优势 -2.30%

Kelly -15.06%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.18

博彩公司预测分布

77.55%82.27%82.58%84.03%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.091.151.151.1891.74%86.96%86.96%84.75%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：New Orleans Pelicans (主队)：17.55%；Denver Nuggets (客队)：82.45%。对于“New Orleans Pelicans (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.70。当时有18家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.00，对应+5.31%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (69 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
Hard Rock Bet🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.31%E +0.886%K +1.06%G +0.056%	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯	5.87I 17.04%NM 16.50%EV +3.03%E +0.516%K +0.622%G +0.019%	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.50%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-11-14 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
BetRivers🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
TABtouch🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-14 22:34
betPARX🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
Bally Bet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-14 22:34
Pinnacle🎯	5.78I 17.30%NM 16.83%EV +1.45%E +0.251%K +0.304%G +0.004%	1.17I 85.47%NM 83.17%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-11-14 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV +1.10%E +0.191%K +0.231%G +0.003%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-14 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.925%E +0.161%K +0.195%G +0.002%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:05
ReBet🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 21:20
Everygame🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 17:57
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-14 23:45
GTbets🎯	5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-15 00:00
SportsBet🎯	5.65I 17.70%NM 16.91%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.09%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-14 22:10
betano_uk🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-14 23:48
Bet Victor🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-14 23:48
Winamax (DE)🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.28%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.72%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
FanDuel🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-14 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-14 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-15 00:05
1xBet🎯	5.56I 17.99%NM 17.38%EV -2.41%E -0.433%K -0.528%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.62%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-11-14 23:24
BetUS🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-14 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-15 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 23:20
TAB🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 23:30
BetMGM🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-15 00:09
picklebet_au🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-14 23:05
Bovada🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:10
BetAnything🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-14 20:05
Paddy Power🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 20:40
betfred_uk🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 21:20
PlayUp🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 20:39
BoyleSports🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.66%E -6.84%K -63.82%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 21:15
PMU (FR)🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -10.13%E -9.30%K -112.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-11-15 00:05
Fanatics🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:09
Fliff🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
Bet Right🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 18:19
Coral🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
Betsson🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-11-14 23:30
Neds🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:09
888sport🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
William Hill🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:09
Coolbet🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-11-14 23:50
Caesars🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Dabble (AU)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-14 20:40
Casumo🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 21:55
DraftKings🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:10
theScore Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:10
Sky Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 22:30
NordicBet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
LeoVegas🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -13.99%E -2.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-11-15 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	4.65I 21.51%NM 19.27%EV -18.38%E -3.95%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 80.73%EV -8.48%E -7.64%K -77.12%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-11-15 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -19.26%E -4.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 80.28%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-11-15 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.45%EV -33.30%E -8.76%K -11.89%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 77.55%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%	17.2%	2026-11-15 00:03

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (10)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
BetOpenly◎	6.62I 15.11%NM 15.13%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.87%	-0.1%	2026-11-14 23:55
Polymarket◎	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%	0.7%	2026-11-15 00:00
Kalshi◎	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%	0.7%	2026-11-14 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
ProphetX◎	6.10I 16.39%NM 16.21%	1.18I 84.75%NM 83.79%	1.1%	2026-11-14 23:45
Novig◎	6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30%	1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70%	1.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
Matchbook◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%	1.6%	2026-11-15 00:10
Smarkets◎	6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%	2.9%	2026-11-15 00:00

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