Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New Orleans Pelicans v Denver Nuggets

Inicio: 2026-11-15 00:11 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

69 corredores (22 en el análisis )

18%

82%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

New Orleans Pelicans (Local)

Predicción 17.55%5.70momio equitativo

EV +5.31%

Ventaja +0.886%

Kelly +1.06%

Crecimiento +0.056%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

15.97%17.73%17.42%22.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

3.805.425.506.0026.32%18.44%18.18%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Denver Nuggets (Visitante)

Predicción 82.45%1.21momio equitativo

EV -2.71%

Ventaja -2.30%

Kelly -15.06%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

77.55%82.27%82.58%84.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.091.151.151.1891.74%86.96%86.96%84.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: New Orleans Pelicans (Local): 17.55%; Denver Nuggets (Visitante): 82.45%. Para New Orleans Pelicans (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.70. 18 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.31%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (69 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.31%E +0.886%K +1.06%G +0.056%	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯	5.87I 17.04%NM 16.50%EV +3.03%E +0.516%K +0.622%G +0.019%	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.50%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-11-14 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-15 00:05
BetRivers🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
TABtouch🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
Unibet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-14 22:34
betPARX🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:05
Bally Bet🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +1.80%E +0.311%K +0.376%G +0.007%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-14 22:34
Pinnacle🎯	5.78I 17.30%NM 16.83%EV +1.45%E +0.251%K +0.304%G +0.004%	1.17I 85.47%NM 83.17%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-11-14 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV +1.10%E +0.191%K +0.231%G +0.003%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-14 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +0.925%E +0.161%K +0.195%G +0.002%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:05
ReBet🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 21:20
Everygame🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 17:57
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +0.048%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-14 23:45
GTbets🎯	5.65I 17.70%NM 17.03%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.97%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-15 00:00
SportsBet🎯	5.65I 17.70%NM 16.91%EV -0.830%E -0.147%K -0.179%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.09%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-14 22:10
betano_uk🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-14 23:48
Bet Victor🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-11-14 23:48
Winamax (DE)🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.28%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.72%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
FanDuel🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-11-14 22:10
Codere (IT)🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-14 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -1.71%E -0.305%K -0.371%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-15 00:05
1xBet🎯	5.56I 17.99%NM 17.38%EV -2.41%E -0.433%K -0.528%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.62%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-11-14 23:24
BetUS🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-11-14 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-15 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 23:20
TAB🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-14 23:30
BetMGM🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-15 00:09
picklebet_au🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-14 23:05
Bovada🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:10
BetAnything🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-14 20:05
Paddy Power🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 20:40
betfred_uk🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 21:20
PlayUp🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-14 20:39
BoyleSports🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-15 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.46%E -0.630%K -0.770%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.66%E -6.84%K -63.82%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 21:15
PMU (FR)🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -5.22%E -0.966%K -1.19%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -10.13%E -9.30%K -112.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-11-15 00:05
Fanatics🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:09
Fliff🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.97%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:10
Bet Right🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.36%E -3.76%K -27.25%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-14 18:19
Coral🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
Betsson🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.85%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-11-14 23:30
Neds🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:09
888sport🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
William Hill🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:09
Coolbet🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-14 11:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -8.73%E -1.68%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.54%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-11-14 23:50
Caesars🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:10
Dabble (AU)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.71%E -2.30%K -15.06%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-14 20:40
Casumo🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 21:55
DraftKings🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:10
theScore Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:10
Sky Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.54%E -3.02%K -20.80%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-14 22:30
NordicBet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -12.24%E -2.45%K -3.06%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.19%E -4.51%K -34.57%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-15 00:10
LeoVegas🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -13.99%E -2.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -6.01%E -5.27%K -42.93%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-11-15 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	4.65I 21.51%NM 19.27%EV -18.38%E -3.95%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 80.73%EV -8.48%E -7.64%K -77.12%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-11-15 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -19.26%E -4.19%K -5.35%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 80.28%EV -6.83%E -6.05%K -52.57%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-11-15 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.45%EV -33.30%E -8.76%K -11.89%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 77.55%EV -9.31%E -8.46%K -93.07%G +0.000%	17.2%	2026-11-15 00:03

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
BetOpenly◎	6.62I 15.11%NM 15.13%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.87%	-0.1%	2026-11-14 23:55
Polymarket◎	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%	0.7%	2026-11-15 00:00
Kalshi◎	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12%	0.7%	2026-11-14 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%	1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%	0.9%	2026-11-14 22:10
ProphetX◎	6.10I 16.39%NM 16.21%	1.18I 84.75%NM 83.79%	1.1%	2026-11-14 23:45
Novig◎	6.06I 16.50%NM 16.30%	1.18I 84.75%NM 83.70%	1.2%	2026-11-15 00:10
Matchbook◎	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%	1.6%	2026-11-15 00:10
Smarkets◎	6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%	2.9%	2026-11-15 00:00

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